Here's a remarkable quote from the Nov. 24 Globe and Mail (A4) , saying
things out loud that aren't often stated so baldly. Sally
Headline: Signs of optimism abound in U.S. despite downturn
"Whether the United States is in a full-blown recession, or at the
beginning of a recovery (as most observers agree), the era of steady
employment is definitely ended.
'The unemployment rate is guaranteed to rise much further,' Ian
Shepherdson, an economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla N.Y. told
reporters this week, 'but this will not prevent a recovery.'
Economists expect large-scale layoffs to continue through 2002, a
prospect that is a cause for optimism among investors. Most stock indices
saw impressive rallies this week, spurred in part by corporate promises to
trim work forces.
Unemployment [in the U.S.] is now at 5.4 per cent, up from 3.9 per
cent a year ago, with more than 400,000 jobs disappearing each month since
September. These are the worst U.S. jobless levels since the early 1990s,
and possibly since the deep slump of the late 1970s and early 80s.
But layoffs aren's what they used to be. Many workers have simply
switched to part-time or contract employment, and consider this period a
well-earned break [NB No data are presented to document this statement].
The current wave of layoffs has been heavily concentrated among part-time
and temporary workers. Companies have built their businesses around much
more flexible, and disposable, work forces since the last recession,
allowing them to react more quickly to declining fortunes.
There are some signs of deeper malaise. A record 1.5 million
Americans are expected to file for persona; bankruptcy this year, up 22 per
cent from 2000, a study says."
Anyone have any comments on this?
