Hi Sally, I guess it depends on what people see as recovering. It would seem that what is emerging is several layers or streams to the economy, with some moving up and recovering (investors, financial dealers of various kinds) while others remain static or move downward (people with steady, nine to five jobs). The traditional model of the economy working as an integrated whole seems to be breaking down into something that might best be thought of loosely joined mutually antagonistic pieces.
If that is indeed the kind of world we are moving into, there will be winners, but probably also a growing number of losers. This makes political programming focusing on the distribution of income and access to healthcare, education, shelter and other social measures especially important. Unfortunately, our political leaders do not seem to recognize this. Ed Weick > Here's a remarkable quote from the Nov. 24 Globe and Mail (A4) , saying > things out loud that aren't often stated so baldly. Sally > > Headline: Signs of optimism abound in U.S. despite downturn > > "Whether the United States is in a full-blown recession, or at the > beginning of a recovery (as most observers agree), the era of steady > employment is definitely ended. > 'The unemployment rate is guaranteed to rise much further,' Ian > Shepherdson, an economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla N.Y. told > reporters this week, 'but this will not prevent a recovery.' > Economists expect large-scale layoffs to continue through 2002, a > prospect that is a cause for optimism among investors. Most stock indices > saw impressive rallies this week, spurred in part by corporate promises to > trim work forces. > Unemployment [in the U.S.] is now at 5.4 per cent, up from 3.9 per > cent a year ago, with more than 400,000 jobs disappearing each month since > September. These are the worst U.S. jobless levels since the early 1990s, > and possibly since the deep slump of the late 1970s and early 80s. > But layoffs aren's what they used to be. Many workers have simply > switched to part-time or contract employment, and consider this period a > well-earned break [NB No data are presented to document this statement]. > The current wave of layoffs has been heavily concentrated among part-time > and temporary workers. Companies have built their businesses around much > more flexible, and disposable, work forces since the last recession, > allowing them to react more quickly to declining fortunes. > There are some signs of deeper malaise. A record 1.5 million > Americans are expected to file for persona; bankruptcy this year, up 22 per > cent from 2000, a study says." > > Anyone have any comments on this? > > > >
