Sally, Perhaps worse than the complete ignorance of economists with regard to the ending of the boom is their equal ignorance of why the boom started in the first place.
Isn't that a little frightening? You'll note that all they do is suggest that things may get worse before they get better - or even that things will get better before they get worse. (Not often the second one, for their incomes are usually tied to things getting better.) Harry _______________________________________________________ Sally wrote: >Here's a remarkable quote from the Nov. 24 Globe and Mail (A4) , saying >things out loud that aren't often stated so baldly. Sally > >Headline: Signs of optimism abound in U.S. despite downturn > > "Whether the United States is in a full-blown recession, or at the >beginning of a recovery (as most observers agree), the era of steady >employment is definitely ended. > 'The unemployment rate is guaranteed to rise much further,' Ian >Shepherdson, an economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla N.Y. told >reporters this week, 'but this will not prevent a recovery.' > Economists expect large-scale layoffs to continue through 2002, a >prospect that is a cause for optimism among investors. Most stock indices >saw impressive rallies this week, spurred in part by corporate promises to >trim work forces. > Unemployment [in the U.S.] is now at 5.4 per cent, up from 3.9 per >cent a year ago, with more than 400,000 jobs disappearing each month since >September. These are the worst U.S. jobless levels since the early 1990s, >and possibly since the deep slump of the late 1970s and early 80s. > But layoffs aren's what they used to be. Many workers have simply >switched to part-time or contract employment, and consider this period a >well-earned break [NB No data are presented to document this statement]. >The current wave of layoffs has been heavily concentrated among part-time >and temporary workers. Companies have built their businesses around much >more flexible, and disposable, work forces since the last recession, >allowing them to react more quickly to declining fortunes. > There are some signs of deeper malaise. A record 1.5 million >Americans are expected to file for persona; bankruptcy this year, up 22 per >cent from 2000, a study says." > >Anyone have any comments on this? ****************************** Harry Pollard Henry George School of LA Box 655 Tujunga CA 91042 Tel: (818) 352-4141 Fax: (818) 353-2242 *******************************
