Hi, Keith!!! It is 8.51 am in BA and I have just get out of my bed. Firstly, I am very happy of receiving your mail, thank you very much for your accurate views. I am very worried about what is going to happen in the transition of argentine crisis. Most of my friends (young economists, too) think that there is no way out: they just want to emigrate and start a new life abroad. The system doesn�t work here. I mean, it is like Anne Krueger says, most people are rent seekers, the State has no autonomy at all. Intelligent and honest people don�t want to take part in politics because they are frightned of being involved in corruption o being pressed or being unable of changing anything at all. You talk about a desire of strong leadership in my country. I agree with your analysis about strong leaders in my country. I voted for De la Rua because he was an honest lawer. But he disappointed me. Our country not only has severe problems to face his debt, we also have a very strong inequality and a very high unemployment rate. De la Rua did nothing to solve this problems. And so there were people unemployed for 4 years in the lower class. This increases violence, resentment, social exclusion, etc. Well, I have lot sof things to say about Argentine crisis, but it is too early in the morning and English is not my mother tongue, so I will do it later. Kisses. Carmen ----- Original Message ----- From: "Keith Hudson" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: "Carmen Lopez" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Cc: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Sent: Sunday, December 23, 2001 4:10 AM Subject: Argentina can arise! (was Re: Argentina down and out)
> Hi Carmen, > > This is Sunday and I am drinking from my first pot of tea of the day. > > I am still thinking about what might be said to be helpful to Argentina. > Meanwhile, this morning, I have been listening on shortwave radio from a > BBC reporter speaking from Buenos Aires and he was saying that people in > Argentina are calling for a strong leader. > > Well, apart from your first great reforming President, Bernadino Rivadavia > in the 19th century, Argentina has not been lucky since then. It seems to > me that strong leaders have been your greatest problem in the course of > this century! You've had a whole stream of strong leaders -- army generals, > navy admirals, and dictactors who've been greedy for power or money or > both. Your last two "strong leaders", Peron and Menem, have merely driven > your country into massive debt. > > Your last President, Fernando de la Rua, was an exception to the usual run > and, from what I understand, his shy and retiring nature was the reason why > he was elected as a relief from the corruption and embarrassing antics of > President Carlos Menem who did nothing for your country but left you even > more crippled with debt. > > Now that Menem has been released from arrest I suppose that it is a > possibility that he might manipulate the poor of the country (as Peron did) > and get into power again. Well, if he does so, he won't be the solution to > your problems. Or you might get another "strong leader" who is just as bad. > > No doubt the IMF and finance ministers from other countries will find an > immediate solution to your debt problems -- or at least, delay payments for > a while. It's the medium and longer term solutions that are important. > > There's one thing I am certain about. This is that the solution to your > problems, and the necessary new institutions that you will have to develop, > can only really grow from within Argentina. They can't be implanted from > outside. Within your country you will have many people of integrity and > intelligence who will probably arrive at sensible solutions. We'll have to > hope that their voices will be allowed to influence those who have > political power. > > I'd like to write some more words about what I think about Argentina's > problems, but I need a few more morning pots of tea before I might do so. > Meanwhile, let's be positive! So I've changed the subject heading of this > FW thread. Argentina need not always be down and out. It can be up and > running again successfully, given enough thought -- and a lucky throw of > the dice in the choice of your next President. > > Keith Hudson > > > At 08:47 22/12/01 -0300, you wrote: > >Hello, I am Carmen from Argentina. This tuesday and wednesday have been a > >nightmare. I am a just graduated economist and I think that the problem of > >my country is not only economic but institutional. Politicians have no > >credibility at all. My country is a very "special" one. We have had 40 years > >of inflation until convertibility arrived. Convertibility succeded in > >restraining inflation but the cost was seen in the market for labor were > >unemployment raised. I am very interested in hearing your opinions. > >Sincerely, > >Carmen > > __________________________________________________________ > "Writers used to write because they had something to say; now they write in > order to discover if they have something to say." John D. Barrow > _________________________________________________ > Keith Hudson, Bath, England; e-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > _________________________________________________ > >
