Keith, A further aside on this is that the Chinese are using John Warfield much the same way as Japan used Edward Deming. Both Deming and Warfield are Americans who were basically ignored by American Corporate management until they met them on the field of international trade and got their bottoms spanked. John Warfield is the finest pedagogist and systems thinker I have ever had the pleasure of reading or meeting. He made me believe again in the possibilities of science and that was not an easy job considering all of the fraud around. He even made me reconsider Pierce and Hayak when the Neo-Cons has almost destroyed any ability for me to separate their work from the Neo-con abuse of their ideas.
REH ----- Original Message ----- From: Keith Hudson <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Sent: Saturday, January 05, 2002 12:57 PM Subject: Move over, America > Ever since reading "The Rise and Fall of Great Powers" by Paul Kennedy ten > years ago I've wondered whether I would ever see signs of America's > economic decline. > > I have the feeling in my bones that a future historian will highlight the > 2000-2010 decade as the beginning of the end, and the rise (or, rather, the > re-emergence) of China as the largest economic force. > > If I were an American I would be more than a little frightened by the > following article in today's New York Times. (There's just one trivial > mistake in the article. The Indian Institute of Information Technology is > actually the National Institute of Information Technology and this is a > private chain of schools. Those with a NIIT diploma are recruited by > computer firms in preference to BSc graduates from the State universities.) > > <<<< > January 5, 2002 > > CHINESE RACE TO SUPPLANT INDIA IN SOFTWARE > > By Saritha Rai > > In the battle between India and China over the software business, India > holds the edge. But if the recent invasion of Chinese trade and information > technology delegations to Bangalore, India's software capital, is any > indication, China is hoping to change that. > > A few weeks ago, a delegation of officials from the Chinese Ministry of > Higher Education was here at Infosys Technologies, India's best-known > technology company, on something of a reconnaissance mission. > > The Chinese, it appeared, could not stop asking questions. How are > employees trained in the latest technologies? How do programmers anticipate > the needs of the market? How does the company keep its attrition rate under > 10 percent? What kind of cuisine at the cafeterias? How many employees use > the gym on an average day? > > "We are here to learn," said Wang Ya Jie, the deputy director general of > the Office of the Academic Degrees Committee, who led the delegation. > > The visitor routine at Infosys is well rehearsed, and dozens of foreign > business groups come each week. Delegations get a presentation about > Infosys or a question session with an executive. To round off, there is a > golf buggy tour of the campus that leaves most visitors in awe; Infosys > says it has the second-largest technology campus, after Microsoft's. > > Until early last year, Chinese visitors were rare, but in the last month > alone, five Chinese delegations have stopped by. > > The Chinese groups from universities and software parks are focused on one > goal: they would like to supplant India as the world's second-largest > producer of software, after the United States. > > "The Chinese are very clever, just as the Indians are," said a member of > one delegation, Kang Jianchu, an assistant professor at the Beijing > University of Aeronautics and Astronautics. "So what else is the > difference? We are here to find out." > > The Chinese realize that part of India's advantage comes from its schools > and universities. So, besides the stop at Infosys, this Chinese group's > two-day itinerary was packed with trips to the city's premier technology > schools, the Indian Institute of Science and the Indian Institute of > Information Technology. > > After all, the Chinese have engineering and technology schools that they > consider just as good as, if not better than, those in India. More than 200 > universities have computer science departments, according to the four > professors in the Chinese delegation, and 33 universities in China now have > specialized schools teaching software development. > > "The most important difference," said Shen Weiping, vice president of > Jiaotong University in Shanghai, "is that professors in India teach > computers in English and professors in China teach computers in Chinese." > > Until now, English has been taught as a subject in China, but other > subjects have not been taught in English, limiting practical use of the > classroom learning. English skills are critical for the Chinese if they > intend to build the customer relationships needed to increase exports to > English-speaking countries. > > In the fiscal year that ended on March 31, 2001, India exported software to > more than 100 countries, but a significant 60 percent of its software > exports went to the United States alone. > > China outstrips India in almost every sphere of development except > software. It attracts a bigger chunk of foreign investment, and its share > of world exports, whether textiles or toys, is far bigger. > > In information technology, however, India takes pride in outdoing its > rival. In 2000-01, India's software exports totaled $6.2 billion. Nasscom, > India's software industry trade body, projects that India will reach $8.5 > billion in exports by the end of this year. China's software exports were > only $130 million in 1999 and have yet to reach $1 billion. > > A sense of urgency came through in the Chinese visit. The visitors > repeatedly asked officials of the Indian companies, "What kind of model did > India follow to reach this level in information technology?" > > Although they say they gain information from the Chinese as well as give > it, officials of the Indian companies, understandably, are not entirely > open with their answers. > > Arjun Belliappa, a government official who facilitates visits by foreign > delegations, said, "The Chinese are very eager to know the business model, > and Indian companies are expectedly very reserved." For example, this > particular delegation, despite several requests, was not permitted to visit > Bangalore's other well-known software company, Wipro Technologies. > > With the Chinese going about learning in their quiet way, Indian technology > companies are already looking over their shoulders. They fear that if the > language gap is bridged, the Chinese will begin bidding for the same slice > of the pie as the Indian companies, snatching away projects and foreign > currency earnings. > > The world's two most populous countries, with more than a billion people > each, will fight this war with programmers, which they both churn out in > the thousands. > > Indian labor is cheap, but Chinese labor is cheaper. Programming produced > by Chinese costs about 20 percent less than that produced by equally > qualified Indians, and some see this as eventually giving China a big > advantage. At the same time, companies like Infosys and Wipro are looking > for ways to use Chinese talent for their own software development efforts. > > Kiran Karnik, president of Nasscom, said China would take several years to > catch up with India. "However, we can't afford to be complacent," he said. > > China, meanwhile, is being aggressive. One of its largest software > companies, Huawei Technologies, has a center in Bangalore that employs 536 > people and is Huawei's biggest unit outside China. > > At the unit, 180 Chinese work alongside Indian programmers, soaking in the > work culture and ethics. "They are learning how Indian programmers work > together, how well they coordinate," said Ms. Kang, the assistant professor > from Beijing. > > Crisscrossing the 50-acre Infosys campus in a golf cart, the delegation was > asked how long it would take China to overtake India as software > powerhouse. "In the next 5 to 10 years, we hope to do that," Mr. Weiping > said with quiet calculation. > >>>> > > Keith Hudson > > > > > __________________________________________________________ > "Writers used to write because they had something to say; now they write in > order to discover if they have something to say." John D. Barrow > _________________________________________________ > Keith Hudson, Bath, England; e-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > _________________________________________________ >
