I have the strongest feeling that the next trouble spot will be Saudi
Arabia -- and that it might blow up quite soon with repercusions that will
involve us all.

There have been more than enough indications in the last few years -- not
the least being the phenomenon of Osama ben Laden -- that pressure is
building up against the Saudi Arabian government (that is, the Saudi Royal
family) and that an explosive situation is developing. The Saudi Arabian
government is so frightened of internal revolution by anti-American
elements that it even denied US warplanes using their airfields in
operations against Afghanistan.

It isn't just frustrations by Islamic fundamentalists, but also the valid
expectations of ordinary young Saudis, particularly girls, for better
education and worthwhile jobs.

In the last few weeks, I have found it very curious that several US
advisors close to Bush have been talking about the possibility (indeed,
probability, so say some) of action being taken against Sadam Hussein in
Iraq. Why should this be so? Only, in my view, if it was thought likely
that Hussein was about to take offensive action of some sort. 

This is unlikely to be action against Israel because it's likely that both
the US and Israel have keeping a close watch on any sort of development of
missile technology in Iraq. The slightest sign of this would be quite
visible from satellite photography.

If Sadam Hussein is contemplating war, then it can only be against Kuwait
again -- but this time followed through quickly into Saudi Arabia.

The most recent piece of evidence, as reported in one or two of today's
papers, is that is that there is a huge hole of around $6 billion in the
Saudi 2001 budget despite increased oil revenues during 2000. Nobody knows
where this money has gone, even though there has been no spending binge
within the country. An unprecedented series of articles in the El Watan
newspaper in SA has been calling for explanations.

Apparently, western diplomats with contacts within the government are
suggesting that that the extra income went to pay off parts of the SA
internal debt. But, if so, why hasn't the government said so openly?
Perhaps some of the cash has been used in this way.

The Saudi Royal family have been investing money in the West for years.
Indeed, a country house not far from where I live is owned by a Saudi
Prince and he comes here once a year (on which occasion a friend of mine
tunes his harpsichord). Saudi Royals own vast estates in England and a
great deal of the most expensive properties in London. (In fact, there is
quite a lot of slave labour in the London homes of Saudi Arabians -- never
investigated, of course, because the SAs are too rich and powerful.)

But I think that a hole of $6 billion is a pretty large one and that a
great deal of it has gone abroad. I think that the Saudi Royal family is
now in its final days. I think we can expect big trouble quite soon. If so,
then I think we can expect an Afghan-type operation against Saudi Arabia in
the not too distant future in order to squash incipient fundamentalism and
guarantee continued supplies of oil (about 15% pf US requirements). If
Sadam Hussein threatens to invade I wouldn't be surprised if America
counter-threatens Saddam Hussein with nuclear weapons because it's unlikely
that even America could now afford another major war with conventional
weapons. (Though perhaps a major war might suit American purposes in order
to end the looming recession -- at the cost of inflation, of course.)

Keith Hudson
 
  

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�Writers used to write because they had something to say; now they write in
order to discover if they have something to say.� John D. Barrow
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Keith Hudson, Bath, England;  e-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
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