I have the strongest feeling that the next trouble spot will be Saudi Arabia -- and that it might blow up quite soon with repercusions that will involve us all.
There have been more than enough indications in the last few years -- not the least being the phenomenon of Osama ben Laden -- that pressure is building up against the Saudi Arabian government (that is, the Saudi Royal family) and that an explosive situation is developing. The Saudi Arabian government is so frightened of internal revolution by anti-American elements that it even denied US warplanes using their airfields in operations against Afghanistan. It isn't just frustrations by Islamic fundamentalists, but also the valid expectations of ordinary young Saudis, particularly girls, for better education and worthwhile jobs. In the last few weeks, I have found it very curious that several US advisors close to Bush have been talking about the possibility (indeed, probability, so say some) of action being taken against Sadam Hussein in Iraq. Why should this be so? Only, in my view, if it was thought likely that Hussein was about to take offensive action of some sort. This is unlikely to be action against Israel because it's likely that both the US and Israel have keeping a close watch on any sort of development of missile technology in Iraq. The slightest sign of this would be quite visible from satellite photography. If Sadam Hussein is contemplating war, then it can only be against Kuwait again -- but this time followed through quickly into Saudi Arabia. The most recent piece of evidence, as reported in one or two of today's papers, is that is that there is a huge hole of around $6 billion in the Saudi 2001 budget despite increased oil revenues during 2000. Nobody knows where this money has gone, even though there has been no spending binge within the country. An unprecedented series of articles in the El Watan newspaper in SA has been calling for explanations. Apparently, western diplomats with contacts within the government are suggesting that that the extra income went to pay off parts of the SA internal debt. But, if so, why hasn't the government said so openly? Perhaps some of the cash has been used in this way. The Saudi Royal family have been investing money in the West for years. Indeed, a country house not far from where I live is owned by a Saudi Prince and he comes here once a year (on which occasion a friend of mine tunes his harpsichord). Saudi Royals own vast estates in England and a great deal of the most expensive properties in London. (In fact, there is quite a lot of slave labour in the London homes of Saudi Arabians -- never investigated, of course, because the SAs are too rich and powerful.) But I think that a hole of $6 billion is a pretty large one and that a great deal of it has gone abroad. I think that the Saudi Royal family is now in its final days. I think we can expect big trouble quite soon. If so, then I think we can expect an Afghan-type operation against Saudi Arabia in the not too distant future in order to squash incipient fundamentalism and guarantee continued supplies of oil (about 15% pf US requirements). If Sadam Hussein threatens to invade I wouldn't be surprised if America counter-threatens Saddam Hussein with nuclear weapons because it's unlikely that even America could now afford another major war with conventional weapons. (Though perhaps a major war might suit American purposes in order to end the looming recession -- at the cost of inflation, of course.) Keith Hudson __________________________________________________________ �Writers used to write because they had something to say; now they write in order to discover if they have something to say.� John D. Barrow _________________________________________________ Keith Hudson, Bath, England; e-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] _________________________________________________
