FW: Closing the deal

[Karen Watters Cole]

We are trolling for W. African oil and have Russian oil being delivered in the Gulf of Mexico; Bush is pushing Congress for a broad approval to act preemptively “in the region” not just in Iraq; the markets are down with latest monthly reports and performance earnings.  The push is on to close the deal in a hurry.  I saw the Brokaw interview w/ Russian Defense Minister Ivanov and he was no country bumpkin.   Possible Iraq-for-Georgia Deal Could Seal Baghdad's Fate @ http://www.stratfor.com/fib/fib_view.php?ID=206246 17 September 2002 Summary: Washington and Moscow appear to be discussing a possible deal in which Russia would not veto a U.S. attack on Iraq in the U.N. Security Council in exchange for Washington's tacit agreement on a Russian counterterrorist operation in Georgia. If the deal holds, Iraq's fate will be soon sealed, but the consequences could hurt Russia as well in the end. Analysis: Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened Sept. 11 to send troops into Georgia's Pankisi Gorge unless Tbilisi deals with Islamic militants -- including alleged Chechen rebels -- within its borders, the BBC reports. On Sept. 12 Putin also warned the United Nations that Russia would take "necessary measures" to defend itself against cross-border Islamist attacks if Tbilisi cannot control the gorge. The Bush administration, which until just a few days ago publicly supported Georgia against such Russian threats, recently said through statements by U.S. Ambassador Alexander Vershbow that al Qaeda agents are operating not only in the Pankisi but also in Chechnya. Vershbow also met with Russian officials Sept. 12 for talks on anti-terrorism cooperation and Iraq. It appears that the United States and Russia may be close to some form of an "Iraq-for-Georgia" deal. This likely means that Moscow will not veto an American attack on Iraq in the U.N. Security Council in exchange for U.S. acquiescence to a planned Russian operation in Georgia. It also suggests that one of the last obstacles for a U.S. war on Iraq is being removed and that Baghdad's fate soon will be sealed.   On the other hand, Russia may be playing both positions until it gets an offer it can’t refuse… The New Republic:  White House Watch – Two Tones @ http://www.tnr.com/doc.mhtml?i=20020930&s=lizza093002 Rumsfeld continues to undercut Powell’s UN efforts, but Russia’s defense minister may have dealt the final blow, saying in interviews that Russia has seen no evidence of nuclear development in Iraq and doesn’t believe a resolution is necessary (to veto). “Powell's credibility is now tied to winning in the Security Council.  While hawks remain dubious about his U.N. strategy, officials at State insist the diplomacy will deliver a new resolution.  But Bush may have indicated how much confidence he has in a U.N. victory when he asked Congress to speed up its vote authorizing the use of force.  Meanwhile, the Pentagon is moving "rolling stock" (tanks, jeeps, etc.) into the region, setting up a new command center in Qatar, flying B-2 bombers to Britain's Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, and escalating its attacks on Iraq's air defenses in the no-fly zones.  All of that probably sends a louder message to Iraq than that one line that was taken out of Bush's speech.”