We are trolling for
W. African oil and have Russian oil being delivered in the Gulf of Mexico;
Bush is pushing Congress for a broad approval to act preemptively “in the
region” not just in Iraq; the markets are down with latest monthly reports and
performance earnings. The push is
on to close the deal in a hurry.
I saw the Brokaw interview w/ Russian Defense Minister Ivanov and he
was no country bumpkin.
Possible
Iraq-for-Georgia Deal Could Seal Baghdad's Fate @ http://www.stratfor.com/fib/fib_view.php?ID=206246
17
September 2002
Summary: Washington
and Moscow appear to be discussing a possible deal in which Russia would not
veto a U.S. attack on Iraq in the U.N. Security Council in exchange for
Washington's tacit agreement on a Russian counterterrorist operation in
Georgia. If the deal holds, Iraq's fate will be soon sealed, but the
consequences could hurt Russia as well in the end.
Analysis: Russian President Vladimir
Putin threatened Sept. 11 to send troops into Georgia's Pankisi Gorge unless
Tbilisi deals with Islamic militants -- including alleged Chechen rebels --
within its borders, the BBC reports. On Sept. 12 Putin also warned the United
Nations that Russia would take "necessary measures" to defend itself against
cross-border Islamist attacks if Tbilisi cannot control the gorge.
The
Bush administration, which until just a few days ago publicly supported
Georgia against such Russian threats, recently said through statements by U.S.
Ambassador Alexander Vershbow that al Qaeda agents are operating not only in
the Pankisi but also in Chechnya. Vershbow also met with Russian officials
Sept. 12 for talks on anti-terrorism cooperation and Iraq.
It appears
that the United States and Russia may be close to some form of an
"Iraq-for-Georgia" deal. This likely means that Moscow will not veto an
American attack on Iraq in the U.N. Security Council in exchange for U.S.
acquiescence to a planned Russian operation in Georgia. It also suggests that
one of the last obstacles for a U.S. war on Iraq is being removed and that
Baghdad's fate soon will be sealed.
On the other hand, Russia may be playing
both positions until it gets an offer it can’t
refuse…
The
New Republic: White House Watch –
Two Tones @
http://www.tnr.com/doc.mhtml?i=20020930&s=lizza093002
Rumsfeld continues to undercut Powell’s UN
efforts, but Russia’s defense minister may have dealt the final blow, saying
in interviews that Russia has seen no evidence of nuclear development in Iraq
and doesn’t believe a resolution is necessary (to
veto).
“Powell's
credibility is now tied to winning in the Security Council. While hawks remain dubious about his
U.N. strategy, officials at State insist the diplomacy will deliver a new
resolution. But Bush may have
indicated how much confidence he has in a U.N. victory when he asked Congress
to speed up its vote authorizing the use of force. Meanwhile, the Pentagon is moving
"rolling
stock" (tanks, jeeps, etc.) into
the region, setting up a new command center in Qatar, flying B-2 bombers to
Britain's Diego
Garcia in the Indian Ocean, and
escalating its attacks on Iraq's air defenses in the no-fly zones. All of that probably sends a louder
message to Iraq than that one line that was taken out of Bush's
speech.”
