Re: Closing the deal

[Ed Weick]

Hi Lawry,   About all I can say is that Russia's dealings with it's neighbours and minorities are complex.  It has a unique relationship with each, depending on factors such as history, relative size and strength, geography and religion.  The 'stans are not only ethnically very different from the people of the Russian heartland, they are very far away and, as Afghanistan suggested, would likely put up a fierce fight if Russia tried to re-incorporate them into some form of post-Soviet empire.  The Ukraine holds a very special place in the Russia national ethos since the Kievan Rus were the source of much of Russian culture, religion and language.  The Ukraine poses no threat and acts as a protective buffer between Russia and the rest of Europe.  Georgia, lying just above Turkey, is both economically and strategically important to Russia.   One of the most central facts of Russian history, one which I'm sure is still very important to its foreign relations, is that it feels both isolated from, and fearful of, the surrounding world, and with good reason.  Tatars and other tribesmen attacked from the east, Swedes, Poles and Germans from the west, and Turks from the south.  What Russians have always felt is a need for good neighbours around them.  If, as in the days of the USSR, they can't compel neighbours to be good, they need to use other, more diplomatic, means.  I find it a little odd that Putin has made threats about going into Georgia to move Chechyns out of the Pankisi Gorge, and I rather doubt that he will do it.  Russia needs a friendly Georgia on its southern border far more than it needs to blow up a few holed-up rebels.   The minorities - Chechyns, Ossetians, Bashkirs, etc. - within present Russian boundaries are a very different case from the former republics.  They remain a domestic matter, and have not succeeded in becoming a foreign one.  Despite what the Chechyns have managed to do, the minorities are not militarily powerful and can be kept in line by bullying.  At the same time Russia cannot allow the Chechyns to succeed.  If they did, it would be a powerful signal to some of the other minorities in general vicinity of the South Caucuses.  When I was in Russia in 1995, rumour had it that Chechnya was only the hottest of a number of minority hotspots.  I met people who, when asked what part of Russia they came from, vigorously denied being Russian - they were Ossetians, Bashkirs or something else - most emphatically not Russian!   Ed   Ed Weick 577 Melbourne Ave. Ottawa, ON, K2A 1W7 Canada Phone (613) 728 4630 Fax     (613)  728 9382 ----- Original Message ----- From: Lawrence DeBivort To: Ed Weick ; Karen Watters Cole ; Futurework Cc: Keith Hudson ; Lawrence de Bivort ; Arthur Cordell Sent: Friday, September 20, 2002 8:28 PM Subject: RE: Closing the deal Ed, what is your take on why Russia would allow the ‘Stans, Georgia, Ukraine, Byelorussia, Armenia , etc to become independent,  but not Chechnya or some others?   I can confirm your observation that the Russians were very concerned about the disintegration of the USSR. I gave a talk in 1991 to the USSR Academy of Sciences Presidium on the value of diversity and variety, and on an organizational structure that might serve the interests of both Russia and the many republics that were talking about eventual independence; it was a very hot and contentious topic, and while we had a spirited discussion with many differing views expressed by the attendees, it was clear that it was a passionate worry and one that would not be easily resolved.    And agreed, this has nothing to do with al-Qaida; Putin and Sergei Ivanov are stealing a page out of Bush’s Pandora’s Box. Quite rightly, the Russians figure if the anti-terrorist theme is good for the goose, it should be good for the gander.  I’m sure this does ender Bush and his theorists to the Georgians!   Cheers, Lawry