In recent months I have been developing a simplistic picture in my mind of the world of my grandchildren when they're adult and raising children in turn.
I don't want to shove the dreadful matter of genetics down FWer's throats again for its own sake, but I'm sufficiently convinced by those psychologists who measure and research IQ that there are two "pockets" of high intelligence in the world. One is/was the Ashkenazi Jews of Central Europe, and the other is the sea coast region of China. (Whatever IQ scores may mean, their average IQs are 116 and 106 [or thereabouts] respectively, compared with general west European and American scores of 95-100.) Also consider that America owes a huge intellectual debt (immeasurable but huge in my opinion) to the large numbers of Ashkenazi Jews who emigrated at around 1900-1920, with further smaller, but crucial top-ups from German and Russian Ashkenazi Jews pre-and post-WWII respectively. (I'm not aware that a sufficiently comprehensive book has yet been written which gives full justice to the effect of this immigration on many intellectual areas of American life.) Now consider that, in the last 10-20 years, America owes a large intellectual debt to Asian immigrants -- particularly in business and new technology. (Half of Silicon Valley start-ups are Asian-led, more than half of physics papers in the top journals are by Asian-born scientists.) This latter source is going to dry up as China becomes resurgent. Now consider that the state education systems in Japan, Europe and, above all, America have been deteriorating and dumbing down for 20/30 years and are now breaking down pretty badly, at least in many areas of the large cities. Just how many high-IQ and creative children are being turned off at an early age? Who knows? But I'd suggest that it's at least a number that's equivalent to the imported talent on which both America (in particular) and Europe have depended upon during the last 20 years. (I just don't know how much Japan has depended on imported talent. Very little, I suspect -- which makes their present economic impasse all the more serious.) Every report that we have of the coastal regions of China tells of an incredible thirst for education. China is now poised to forge ahead in at least three areas of high-technology -- biogenetics, computers and ballistic missiles -- and, I suspect several more. If China can survive reform of its banking systems, then it seems to me that nothing can prevent it overhauling America significantly during the next 10/20 years. Then we have the curious situation of Israel with perhaps the densest and highest IQ population in the world -- it being the recipient of a million plus Ashkenazi Jews from Russia, Poland, etc in the last 20 years. I know very little about Israel's technology and I suspect that there's a great deal that's very secret. But consider its (alleged) 200 nuclear weapons, its software development, medical technology and its development of missiles and pilotless airplanes, etc from such a small country, almost entirely without natural resources. It seems to me that this country is truly quite miraculous -- whatever whatver reservations we may have about its policy versus the Palestinians. So, to summarise: America might well impose itself on the Middle East for the next 10-20 years for the sake of having enough oil but I'm beginning to think that, historically, its nemesis is a great deal sooner than we could possibly imagine. I think the next generation is going to see a momentous turnaround in the power relationships of the world. China will be on top, and Israel will be importantly involved in this somewhere, I suspect. All this has been simplistic -- but I can't see the deteriorating trends in mass education in the West reversing themselves, and this, to my mind, is the key to it all. Keith Hudson ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------ Keith Hudson, General Editor, Handlo Music, http://www.handlo.com 6 Upper Camden Place, Bath BA1 5HX, England Tel: +44 1225 312622; Fax: +44 1225 447727; mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] ________________________________________________________________________
