Hi, Harry. I just thought others might be interested in what Safire, a still influential conservative pundit, had to say about whom might get what afterwards. Just as some people have complained that there has been more open negotiating on Meet the Press and PBS NewsHour during Congress sessions than on Capitol Hill, Old Guard men like Safire still have the ability to publish a message or idea that can't always be uttered through diplomatic channels. However, I agree this is a crucial test for the UN but can't help suspect 50% of the moment is propaganda in the first place. Russia voted Nyet when we asked for approval on Kosovo, but signaled they would look the other way on the final vote. The US knows this (did you see the discussion between former UN Ambassadors Holbrooke and Kirkpatrick on NewsHour?) so that if China has given her indication not to play the spoiler, and has her own self-interest for keeping that promise, the assumed front-runners for trouble are taken care of. Last week's disaster in Moscow would lend one to think Russia may be more willing to endorse now without any secret deals. But then, we have this wild card argument between Blair and Chirac to keep up the drama - or maybe just the pretense. Bush is trying to play this like "High Noon", the lone good guy who faces down the bad guy and becomes the hero. Kofi Annan will not lose his job nor be entirely discredited, should Bush manage by sheer weight of military might and economic threats, to bend the Security Council to his long decided plans. The UN will survive, though it may suffer stature in the short term. Indeed, Annan may be praised for holding the line against preemptive strikes simply because Bush has such an outlaw cowboy reputation everywhere else but the Red states in the US*. We are gravely underestimating how badly the American reputation has declined and how Americans in business overseas are feeling this heat. Unlike Annan, Powell is at great risk. Bush has said for a year that he intends to attack, with or without the UN. If Powell fails to deliver what his boss now demands and his boss goes ahead with war anyway, he may be rendered impotent for the remainder of this term. If that happens, he should tender his resignation earlier than planned and found his own organization, like Carter did, using his prestige and global name value while it still means something. Bush values loyalty above all else. Like the lately converted sinner that he is, he is gung-ho in his new-found mission. We know he does not listen to, much less allow, other points of view, and as we know from history, this can be calamitous and precipitous. Let's just hope they don't reach too far back into the Old Guard for Powell's replacement with Schultz. But if the GOP retakes the Senate, it really won't matter who Bush nominates to succeed Powell or anyone else, for that matter. I predict that should Carnahan lose Missouri and nothing else changed, the first direct play will be to take stem cell research off the table. Corporate reform is dead already, but there are other environmental issues to be underfunded, the estate tax charade and last but not least, the Supremes. Cheney and Rove would want to do this quickly, before Bush's popularity numbers come down during/after war. If nearly 100,000 protested peacefully in Washington last weekend before a shot is fired, this is not going to be his Daddy's war. - Karen * Bush's popularity numbers are still impressive, but pollsters asking the question "Do you think the country is headed in the right direction?" get a much softer and mixed response. Bush's popularity has declined by 5 points each month this quarter, I believe. Shortly, we will be awash in polls. Outgoing Mail Scanned by NAV 2002 Harry wrote: Europeans always blamed the U.S. for not joining the League of Nations in the general condemnation of Mussolini's invasion of Abyssinia.
Of course they should have done it themselves without the U.S. but that is in past. Yet, might the middle century have been different had the League of Nations mounted a blockade against Mussolini's supply of mustard gas to the North African continent? This seems to me to be no mean analogy to the United Nations' strongly asserting their right to place competent and powerful Inspectors in Iraq. If the United Nations fail to exert to their authority - backed as it is by threat of U.S. force - it will indeed disappear into the mists of history as did the League of Nations. If the scenario that I have supported (backed as it is by 1 percent shrewdness and 99 percent hope) turns out to be what happens, then I suspect that the world will breathe a sigh of relief. Let's keep our fingers crossed.
