For those FWers who may be interested in the possibility of an IQ divide within modern society, the following e-mail to a friend might be of interest.
<<<< Already, to a considerably extent, populations in developed countries are dividing into two IQ portions -- let me call them "A"s and "B"s. This is evidenced by increasing income differentials and surveys showing decreasing generational movement between social classes (at least this is so in England and I suspect it's so in other advanced countries). Regression to the mean takes place in both "halves", of course, and a certain amount of interbreeding will always take place but, if the skill requirements of the modern world keep on increasing then unless basic education inmproves out of all recognition then the selection process within education will have to compensate increasingly for these effects and maintain separation for the sake of economic efficiency. At least, this will continue until the education system is no longer able to select and supply enough high-IQ people to keep the overall system going (that is, without immigration of high talent). However, it is a fact of modern life that the fertility of the As is declining relative to the Bs and, as complexity of modern life increases, then the As are going to be increasingly concerned that the whole of society, A+B, is going to depend increasingly on their efforts. If the As were ever to go on strike in the coming years then society would collapse beyond recovery. Rather like the situation of the hospital consultants in the National Health Service over here in England at the present time, the As will refuse to be compensated by the carrot of much higher salaries if they have to yield more and more of their free time in order to keep the system going. I believe that the As are already becoming conscious of the dire prospects that await them and their descendants -- never mind A+B as a whole -- if these trends continue. It is very clear in recent years that the As are already working much longer hours than the normal working population and, given that more and more A women wish to retain pretty near full-time working because they enjoy their jobs more than housekeeping, then the As cannot increase their birth rate with natural methods. However, rapid improvements in IVF methods in recent years means that, in the near future, many eggs, perhaps as many as 100 at any one time, may be cropped from a woman, fertilised and then selected embryos returned to the mother or placed in surrogate mothers (in theory, dozens simultaneously!). (In the slightly further future -- probably not very far away -- then embryos will probably be able to be gestated and brought to full term in vitro.) Now the point is: Because the huge investment of time, labour and inconvenience of natural childbirth will no longer be required, will the As take advantage of these getchnical developments in order to considerably increase their birth rates? I believe they will -- so long as the costs of embryo-selection, surrogacy and nannieship are affordable. I suggest that this trend has already started. Thirty or forty years ago, the number of nannies had declined almost to vanishing point -- nannies being employed only by the very richest parents and the aristocracy. No-one would have dreamed that the number of jobs of nannies would start growing again as they have done among the nouveau-riche middle-class, nor could have anticipated the phenomena of au pairs and pre-school nurseries in the working lives of many typical professional middle-class parents. In addition to As' desire to keep society going for their own sake (never mind A+B), there's also another strong reason why the As will want to increase their birth rate. People are living longer these days. Inevitably, almost everybody will end up in a state of complete dependency in a nursing home (quite often insensitive, if not cruel, places, too) unless they have enough children who are able to look after them in their own homes. Just as it suited peasants from about 10,000 BC onwards to have many children in order to help with the seeding and harvesting -- and to look after them in their old age -- then I think the modern A-class parent will decide to have more than a replacement number of children in the coming years in order to avoid nursing homes. >>>> Keith Hudson ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------ Keith Hudson, General Editor, Handlo Music, http://www.handlo.com 6 Upper Camden Place, Bath BA1 5HX, England Tel: +44 1225 312622; Fax: +44 1225 447727; mailto:khudson@;handlo.com ________________________________________________________________________
