I might not agree with this US list, nor might Hamish, but worth considering.
Government's 50 Greatest Endeavors: an Opinion Survey http://www.brook.edu/dybdocroot/GS/CPS/50ge/50GE_hp.htm A useful reminder that government, however flawed, can and does accomplish great things. -----Original Message----- From: Cordell, Arthur: ECOM Sent: Thursday, February 06, 2003 11:17 AM To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]; [EMAIL PROTECTED] Cc: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: RE: [Futurework] Inevitable decline in public spending I think Hamish is using the usual scare tactics. -----Original Message----- From: Keith Hudson [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] Sent: Thursday, February 06, 2003 9:34 AM To: Ed Weick Cc: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: Re: [Futurework] Inevitable decline in public spending Ed, What you say can't be so because public services would have extinguished private health services long ago. (Presumably, you still have private health services in Canada?) And then it depends from what point of view is the efficiency judged. In England, for example, the public health services are often considered to have improved in some regions when a new larger hospital is built. But, in fact, this has been done at the expense of other social costs which now have to be borne by the public. The new hospital has caused the demise of several community hospitals (and village businesses which depended on them), and the costs of visiting patients in hospital has shotsup enormously. Many old people simply cannot visit their spouses in hospital for lack of transport and inability to pay for taxi fares over long distances. No, I'm afraid you can't prove the case with the occasional Commission. They can be cooked-up to prove anything that the government or the civil service wants to hear. What should be looked at are the general trends -- and across several countries. This is what MacRae was writing about. Public services in several fields -- and health and education most noticeably -- are now deteriorating in almost all developed countries despite, as in England, much greater expenditures. Keith At 07:50 06/02/03 -0500, you wrote: >Keith, Hamish McRae's comments appear to be not so "even handed". They >appear to be based on the untested and uproven assumption that privately >operated services are necessarily more efficient than publicly operated >services. We've recently seen the release of a Royal Commission report here >in Canada in which the Commissioner, Roy Romanow, said that he found no >evidence that this assumption is valid in the health fields. > >Ed > >Ed Weick >577 Melbourne Ave. >Ottawa, ON, K2A 1W7 >Canada >Phone (613) 728 4630 >Fax (613) 728 9382 > > >> This week our Chancellor, Gordon Brown, made a strong speech extolling >> public services-- attempting to justify the fact that the present >> government is falling into its old Labour Party habits of increasing >public >> expenditure again after being good boys for the past six years. >> >> In an interesting article in yesterday's Independent, its economic editor, >> Hamish McRae, as politically even-handed a commentator as any, advanced >> three reasons why high levels of public expenditure in developed countries >> are bound to fail. I'll abstract from his article and the following might >> interest some of those who like to consider real social trends rather than >> hypothetical ones. >> >> 1. If public services improve, they do so only slowly because they are not >> customer driven, and compare badly with the general quality of private >> sector services which, like the provision of private goods, is improving >> constantly. Indeed, the more diverse our needs and aspirations, the more >> complicated are the tasks of meeting those needs, and the more that public >> services will fail; >> >> 2. Demographic changes towards older populations in all developed >countries >> means that the proportion of people of working age who have to pay the >bulk >> of the taxation needed to support public services is declining. Urging >> people to retire later will help to alleviate the growing shortfall, but >> this only slows down the developing problem and doesn't solve it; >> >> 3. As societies get richer, they tend to spend more money on four main >> activities and all these are growing steadily: leisure, financial >services, >> health care and education. The last two are largely in the hands of the >> state (in England and the EU, if not in America) but where is the extra >> taxation to come from? The people who want more of the latter two services >> cannot afford to be taxed any more, and those who might be able to pay >more >> taxes are disinclined to subsidise increasingly inefficient public >services >> because they want to spend more on the first two private sectors. >> >> As McRae writes at the end of his article: >> " . . . politicians in every developed country will have to rethink the >> whole role of the state over the next few years. And the question they >> should seek to answer is not the theoretical one of the optimal boundary >> between state and market. Rather it is the practical one: what works?" >> >> Hamish McRae is quite right: we can't possibly decide here and now what >> might be the optimum balance between public and private spending in due >> course. Most importantly, we don't know what the demographic structure of >> tomorrow's society will be and, in particular, the fertility rate. Nor do >> we know how or whether developed countries will resist powerful waves of >> migration from the undeveloped world and what effect these will have on >the >> skills and taxation potential of their host populations. >> >> However, I think it's possible to discern two-way trends which indicate >the >> sort of figure for public services (as % of GDP) that will be more usual >in >> developed countries during the next 50 years or so. In the Scandinavian >> countries, where public expenditure is at about 45-50%, they are trying >> hard to reduce it -- transfer costs are too high and are holding back >> economic growth. In the EU (Germany and France in particular), politicians >> would like to reduce present levels of 40-45% to more like 35-40% because >> enterprise and new start-ups are being inhibited. So far, they are being >> prevented from doing so by strong unions -- mainly industrial workers in >> Germany and civil service unions in France. England is dithering at about >> 40%, and Japan and America are also dithering, but at a lower figure -- >> about 30%. The public expenditures of most tiger economies in Asia, >> including China, are at about 15-20% of GDP but are encouraging private >> development of education and health rather than state services, though >they >> know they will have to start state pensions sometime soon. Their public >> expenditures will probably rise to, say, about 25-30%. >> >> So it looks to me as though the public expenditures of most developed >> countries will finally end up at about 30% in about 50 years' time. This >> is, of course, assuming that another energy technology will come along >> which will be as cheap as our present one. Economies expand or contract in >> lockstep with the cost of energy, so if our grandchildren don't have as >> cheap a technology as oil or gas is now, then all the above forecasts can >> be thrown out of the window. >> >> Keith Hudson >> >> >> -------------------------------------------------------------------------- >-- >> ------------ >> >> Keith Hudson, General Editor, Handlo Music, http://www.handlo.com >> 6 Upper Camden Place, Bath BA1 5HX, England >> Tel: +44 1225 312622; Fax: +44 1225 447727; mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] >> ________________________________________________________________________ >> _______________________________________________ >> Futurework mailing list >> [EMAIL PROTECTED] >> http://scribe.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework > > > ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------ Keith Hudson, General Editor, Handlo Music, http://www.handlo.com 6 Upper Camden Place, Bath BA1 5HX, England Tel: +44 1225 312622; Fax: +44 1225 447727; mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] ________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________ Futurework mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://scribe.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework _______________________________________________ Futurework mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://scribe.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework _______________________________________________ Futurework mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://scribe.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework
