Hi Lawry,

At 11:57 09/03/03 -0500, you wrote:
>Hi, Keith,
>"This weekend" meaning today or in a week?
>
>Cheers
>L

I meant *this* week-end. However, I think I have have underestimated
Blair's resolve, even though he may, in fact, decimate the Labour Party
membership in the country.

One of Blair's strongest critics, an ex-Minister and very experienced MP
(whose name I've forgotten for the moment -- or is it senility?), was on TV
this lunch-time saying,"now that Blair has marched his troops to the top of
the hill [that is, sent them to Kuwait] he's not going to march them down
again [bring them home] like the "Grand Old Duke of York" in the child's
nursery rhyme.

If a UN resolution is not passed (as seems likely) and Blair decides to
support Bush in invading Iraq, then he can rely on a majority in the House
of Commons (he has already promised a debate and a vote some days ago) by
depending on the Tories and, maybe, half of his own Labour MPs. (The total
number of Labour MPs who will vote against Blair is likely to be of the
order of 200 -- about half the total.)

I've just wondering, in fact, whether he's going to do a Ramsey MacDonald.
The latter was the Labour Prime Minister early last century who turned away
from the Labour Party and formed a National Government. Perhaps Blair is
thinking the same. Certainly the Tory Party would welcome him as a leader
instead of their insipid and incompetent Ian Duncan-Smith whom they voted
as leader in a fit of absentmindedness a couple of years ago.

This would be taking speculation to its limits but one attraction to Blair
is that he also has some bitter fights against several public sector unions
ahead of him in the coming months (firefighter, doctors and nurses,
teachers, etc) which, never mind Iraq, might have also caused a split in
the Labour Party. If he forms a National Government with the help of the
Tories then he can outface the unions.

We'll see. Sorry to be so domestic when, in fact, the matter of Gulf War II
has far more important implications for world stability than the relatively
petty squabblings within the Labour Party.

Keith

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Keith Hudson, General Editor, Handlo Music, http://www.handlo.com
6 Upper Camden Place, Bath BA1 5HX, England
Tel: +44 1225 312622;  Fax: +44 1225 447727; mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
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