I'm beginning to think that the British Army will not be fighting in Iraq,
nor even driving over the border in their battle wagons to take up
'peace-keeping' duties.

General Sir Mike Jackson flew into Kuwait yesterday, was video'd
backslapping a few soldiers of different ranks and then flew home again.
His purported reason for going, which he joked about to camera, was that
there is some low morale due to insufficient supplies and that the Brits
are having to borrow things like desert goggles and tins of corned beef
from the Americans. "There's no need to worry," he said to a BBC TV
journalist, "we have a couple of ships coming in soon."

This reason for such a tedious back-and-forth airplane flight by the Chief
of the British Defence Staff is hardly likely. The reason has to be much
more important than the given. So, after ruminating on this, I turned to
the FT to see whether there was a clue there. Tucked away at the end of an
item written by well-respected Tom Odell, was an innocent-looking sentence:
"Defence sources say there is some unease in the military about the
validity of the case for war".

That's more like it. Furthermore, I'd suggest that the "unease in the
military" is not incipient mutiny by the troops (they seem happy enough
playing Cowboys and Indians, charging around the Kuwaiti desert in their
armoured cars and jeeps) but deep feelings at senior levels in the Ministry
of Defence. At least two former British Defence Staff Chiefs and a former
long-serving Head of the Foreign Office have publicly stated recently that
the objectives of a war in Iraq are not clear enough or important enough to
mount a major campaign. I'm not suggesting a senior-level mutiny but I
think General Jackson has picked up enough clues within the Whitehall
establishment to guess that the British part in the whole operation will be
called off soon. He went to Kuwait to tell his senior officers that they
must be prepared to tell their troops in a day or two that they are not
going to invade after all.

And then, this morning on BBC radio, there is an intriguing report that
"several Ministerial aides" are rumoured to be at the point of resigning
without a second non-vetoed UN Resolution. Note the "several"; note that
this has been leaked (and not actually carried out so far). This rumour
would not be surfacing unless the aides have been given a nod and a wink by
their Ministerial bosses. It's the gentlest way of telling Blair that his
policy (and his job) is now in peril and that this week-end he'd better
renounce his support for Bush or else face the consequences of a major
split in the Labour Party next week. 

Keith Hudson

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Keith Hudson, General Editor, Handlo Music, http://www.handlo.com
6 Upper Camden Place, Bath BA1 5HX, England
Tel: +44 1225 312622;  Fax: +44 1225 447727; mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
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