The Bush group must be very, very worried (shall I add another couple of "very"s to that?) that things are not going to plan in civic Iraq. (By "civic" I mean the non-oilfield part of Iraq.) In fact, no plan whatsoever is on the table now. The moment that America's token candidate for president, and former robber of a Jordanian bank for whom there's still an arrest warrant and whose name I've forgotten, was brought out of exile to lead the nation into rich pastures, and was turned down promptly by the Shias, then the Americans didn't know what to do, and still don't. Plans for a provisional administration have now collapsed twice and will continue to do so pretty well indefinitely I imagine.
Here is a front page item in the FT today: <<<< US WIDENS REVIEW OF POST-WAR IRAQ
By James Harding in Washington and Dan Roberts in London
The Pentagon has sent a team of outside policy experts to conduct an independent review of post-war operations in Iraq amid growing criticism that the US failed to prepare for occupation.
A small group from Washington left yesterday at the invitation of Donald Rumsfeld, defence secretary. They are to provide an outside opinion on a strategy review being conducted by Paul Bremer, America's de facto viceroy in Iraq, and the Department of Defence. The mission comes as companies looking to invest in Iraq or win reconstruction contracts are being warned of an "even" chance of the country descending into open revolt.
The US military reported yesterday that one special forces soldier was killed and eight more injured in an attack, while one marine was killed and another two injured in an accident on the way to assist fellow forces that had come under fire. In addition, the Pentagon confirmed that two other soldiers were missing, after reports indicating that they may have been abducted. The risks in the country have been highlighted by apparent sabotage attacks on oil pipelines.
Intelligence gathered by Kroll, the corporate security group, advises clients that political transition is unlikely to go smoothly, despite US assurances. The report outlines four potential scenarios, but says two - a stable "soft landing" or complete fragmentation - are extremely unlikely. Instead, it concentrates on the even chances of a "wobbly landing" or an "Iraqi revolt".
The Bush administration's decision to call in people from outside government who have written papers on postwar Iraq, suggests discomfort in Washington at the problems facing its forces. John Hamre, president of the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a former Pentagon official, is one of the five people off to Baghdad.
"In recent days, DoD [Department of Defence] felt that it might be useful to bring the perspective of the comparative analysis our folks conducted in the course of our work as they undertake a review of their plans for Iraq," Mr Hamre said in an e-mail sent on the eve of departure.
The Pentagon could not immediately comment. >>>> Keith Hudson, 6 Upper Camden Place, Bath, England
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