--- -ray <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > On Mon, 8 Mar 2004, John Hebert wrote: > I also think M$ > will > > ultimately end up as a home entertainment > appliance > > and media company. > > Interesting, I'd never thought of Microsoft that > way. Thanks for your > insight. Scary though... i'd never had an > "appliance" or game console > crash on me -- i'm talking VCR's, stereo's, > Nintendo, Atari, Playstation, > etc -- that is, until i bought an Xbox. > > My cell phone did crash one time though :)
Well, it is interesting to think about. Ultimately, what is Microsoft's real value? IMO, it is their GUI. Now, before you laugh (especially in comparison to the superior Mac UI), the M$ _Windows_ interface hasn't changed in almost 10 years now. Bill Gates's genius was in recognizing that the operating system was the most valuable (read: "profitable") part of a computer. But what equivalent breakthrough products have they made since then? I happen to be booted into WinXP while I am writing this message via a web browser; I could just as easily be doing this in Win95. Or Linux, for example. The operating system was not considered that valuable when Microsoft first started; it was assumed the money was to be made in selling the hardware. Sure, the Mac was way ahead of the IBM PC in both hardware and software, but the IBM PC was cheaper, and even though it had a crappy OS, people bought em, mostly to run (and only run) Lotus123. IBM was too greedy thinking about the profit on their hardware and pretty much gave away their advantage in making a deal with Bill G to provide a rudimentary OS for it. Steven Jobs was blinded by his desire to create the near-perfect computing experience, thereby making his products too expensive for most people. What Jobs _should_ have done is swallowed his competitive pride and developed on OS for the IBM PC. We would be in a different world now; for better or worse, who knows? Most Windows users are not technical computer professionals. They are simply "users", who treat an MS Windows box as an appliance. One reason that Linux is attractive to IT professionals is because it is flexible and can be used to create complete custom solutions to computing problems. I read a quote by Doc Searls a few years back that "Linux is a 2x4. It is raw building material." In comparison, M$ is like staying at a Holiday Inn with crappy TVs in all the rooms. The longer you stay there, the more miserable you become. And you have to stay there, because the only other choices are an expensive resort for rich artists and a DIY trailer park. The DIY trailer park improves every year though. The Internet was the turning of the tide. Finally, there was something that was bigger and more influential than Microsoft, Apple, IBM and rest. Microsoft finally _had_ to give in and support that weird "Internet" thing, otherwise Netscape was going to steal their thunder. As someone else pointed out, M$ is a wannabe ISP. Microsoft was blind-sided by Netscape because it had its eye on AOL at that time. IMO, Microsoft will ultimately lose the battle for the server, simply because using it restricts an IT professional's freedom to create solutions. It will hold on to the majority of the desktop market, but over time the desktop market will actually become a very small computer market, relative to the numbers of computing devices that will be around in the future. Microsoft has already lost control of proprietary protocols; the Internet and its suite of associated open protocols and standards put the nail in that coffin. Microsoft's influence on protocols and standards will become smaller over time, ending with the M$ Office formats. Microsoft is not growing like it once was; when the market is saturated (operating systems), you must either start selling something new (Xbox, home network hardware) or get your customers to upgrade (who in the heck is going to buy Longhorn when Win9x can reach homestarrunner.com just fine?). The market won't be clamoring for Longhorn, IMO. So, what's left? How will M$ return recurring value to their shareholders? Simple. M$ will purchase some media companies; Disney would be a good investment, maybe a cable company or two. Doesn't M$ own a large share of NBC already? The next few years will tell the tale of Microsoft's future. It will be interesting to watch. ===== John Hebert Official BRLUG Linux Curmudgeon Open Source Ankle Biter __________________________________ Do you Yahoo!? Yahoo! Search - Find what youre looking for faster http://search.yahoo.com
