On Monday 08 March 2004 16:05, you wrote: > > I think that one day in the future, Linux will quietly > assume the leading share of the desktop market. No > fanfare, no huge PR announcements; just one more > person installing it on their PC. I also think M$ will > ultimately end up as a home entertainment appliance > and media company. > > > ===== > John Hebert > Official BRLUG Linux Curmudgeon > Open Source Ankle Biter
Nah, Microsoft is going to flame out, ala Enron. Their main value was in brokering position on their "monopoly" desktop by supporting or breaking things. Microsoft's position in the world is precarious and subject to rapid change. Microsoft, like Enron, is lying to maintain it's image as the only software that can run commodity hardware. They will continue to lie about everything while their assets run out and everyone who trusts them is ruined. Microsoft has made much of their position. Individuals and companies have spent vast sums on Microsoft compilers and hard to get API information, just to make what they have work with Microsoft. To keep things going for themselves, Microsoft has fought all hardware standards that might take the place of Windows "standards" such as winmodems. Hardware and software vendors alike are tired of their rule, because only Microsoft is really making money. Free and open software is the ultimate antidote to Microsoft and more companies are seeing that. Microsoft can be gone in less than two years. Microsoft has tremendous costs and few assets. Microsoft burns through about 10 billion dollars a quarter to maintain it's position and is having to spend ever increasing amounts. Their spending makes their 40 billion in assets look tiny. They use stock in themselves to compensate their employees. As other software proves capable, even better, at doing what Microsoft is supposed to do the value of that stock will collapse. Microsoft is all about perception. You can hardly give away other software due to that perception. When people realize what a nasty kludge Microsoft really is, Microsoft's perceived value will fall to that of any other software and hardware makers will ignore them in favor of real standards that work. It will not happen gradually, it will happen suddenly.
