Raul:

I understand what you are trying to do, but I believe it has the same
problem as we have had before:

- A statistic (e.g. the sample mean) is a random variable: it is
different from its value on an actual sample.

- The expectation of a statistic is different from its value on an
actual sample.

The distribution of a statistic depends on the population
distribution.  Its expected value depends on the population
distribution.  Since we are trying to use a statistic to tell us
something about the population, we seem to be in a chicken and egg
situation: the population has an unknown distribution, and the
statistic depends on this.

The idea of the case we are discussing is to estimate the population
variance without knowing anything about the population distribution.
This is point estimation, and the proof I gave shows that this can be
done, namely that E(S^2)=\sigma^2.

To see how accurate our estimate is, we would need to know something
about the population distribution and how this affects the
distribution of the statistic, and we cannot do it in general.  If the
population is normal, then some multiple of our estimate has the
chi-squared distribution, so we can do things like construct
confidence intervals for the estimate.

However, it is not the case that

E(\sum (X_i-\bar X)^2)=\sum (x_i-\bar x)^2

any more than it is the case that the expected value of the sample
mean is the same as its value on an actual sample.

If you are trying to calculate an expected value by averaging it over
samples taken from the population, you will get an estimate, but what
does it mean?  This is precisely what estimation is about.

Best wishes,

John





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