In case the attachment was missed -- here it is again.
Tom.
++++++++++++++++++++
> Dear all,
>
> Please note that the recent paper by Douglass et al. that John
> Christy co-authored has been shown to be seriously flawed by
> the following paper.
>
> Santer et al., 2008: Consistency of modelled and observed
> temperature trends in the tropical troposphere. IJoC: DOI:
> 10.1002, joc.1756
>
> This appears in the same issue as the Douglass et al. paper.
> It shows that the statistical approach used by Douglass et
> al. is (to be polite) simply wrong, that their conclusions
> are also therefore wrong, and that a correct analysis of the
> data they use shows that there is no inconsistency between
> models and observations.
>
> The Santer paper is attached.
>
> Tom.
>
> ++++++++++++++++++++++++++
>
>>
>> Dear David,
>>
>> Your arguments remind me about how Fred Singer tried to convince us
>> that CFC where not harmful to stratospheric ozone. He ended up
>> wasting a lot of people’s time such as Sherry Rowland’s, Ralph
>> Cicerone, Mike Prather and others by refuting his articles.
>>
>> However, to reiterate Ken's email, the premise of this group is global
>> warming is causing climate change. We seek through geoengineering to
>> reduce or reverse some of these side effects such as Arctic ice
>> melting, sea level rise, etc. It is my opinion that your discussions
>> on whether or not the Earth's temperature is rising or not, although
>> of interest to many, belongs in another forum. I cannot afford to
>> spend any more time discussing issues outside of geoengineering with
>> you in this Google group.
>>
>> Sincerely,
>>
>> Oliver Wingenter
>>
>>
>> On Dec 6, 2:33 pm, "David Schnare" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>>> Oliver and Mike:
>>>
>>> I'm a climate change agnostic, and am openly supportive of
>>> Geo-Nurtring,
>>> including activities such as solar radiation management and rebalancing
>>> the
>>> carbon cycle, which would surely include energy conservation.
>>>
>>> The problem I have faced comes when someone like Prof. Jagadish Shukla,
>>> Ph.D., at the Center for Ocean, Land and Atmospheric Studies, attempted
>>> to
>>> undermine my promotion of research on solar radiation management by
>>> claiming
>>> that the scientific underpinning is too uncertain to allow its use. My
>>> response argument is that the identical GCMs used to project climate
>>> change
>>> are used to project the effects of solar radiation management. Then,
>>> individuals with a dog in this fight argue that, indeed, all the
>>> projections
>>> are too uncertain to provide a firm basis for the kinds of actions
>>> climate
>>> alarmist demand.
>>>
>>> My view is that all this uncertainty should result in application of
>>> the
>>> policy paradigm typically used to address potential, but perhaps not
>>> yet
>>> manifest threats public health - the insurance paradigm. This approach
>>> requires development of tools for use when the threat is manifest, but
>>> otherwise only marginal responses until the uncertainties can be
>>> brought
>>> into reasonable limits. [And, Ken, that is why this discussion is not
>>> about
>>> whether climate change can or should be attributed to mankind, which we
>>> all
>>> agree should be on some other discussion platform, but rather is about
>>> the
>>> quality of the science needed to support actions, including solar
>>> radiation
>>> management with large, deep and broad economic consequences, both
>>> positive
>>> and negative.)
>>>
>>> Mike MacCracken is completely correct with regard to some of the
>>> uncertainties. There do appear to be systematic feedbacks that would
>>> prevent a 100 deg. C temperature increase or decrease. Indeed, some
>>> argue
>>> that the feedbacks would prevent anything more than 10 deg shifts.
>>> Nevertheless, it's the 2 to 5 deg C shifts that concern me, and our
>>> uncertainty as to whether these will arise (in either direction, by the
>>> way,
>>> as the adverse effects of a significant drop in temperature are
>>> potentially
>>> as bad as a similar increase). The uncertainty remains so large that I
>>> don't see a basis to apply anything other than the insurance paradigm
>>> (which, by the way, reflects the precautionary principle, but is not
>>> hostage
>>> to that principle).
>>>
>>> Finally, for those of you interested in the Huntsville program, perhaps
>>> John
>>> Christy's work is the more accessible material. He heads the program
>>> and
>>> Roy Spencer is one of his staff. Here's a list of John's relevant
>>> publications on the temperature data set, leading off with the ones
>>> that
>>> discuss the relationship of the Huntsville data to that of other
>>> sources,
>>> and to projections. Note, although they spend a great deal of time
>>> measuring tropospheric temperatures, they measure and report surface
>>> temperatures for both land and ocean in their data sets.
>>>
>>> Cheers,
>>> David.
>>>
>>> Pubs link:http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/atmos/christy_pubs.html
>>>
>>> * Christy, J.R. and R.W.Spencer, 2005: Correcting temperature data
>>> sets.
>>> Science, 310, 972.
>>>
>>> * Douglass, D.H., J.R. Christy, B.D. Pearson and S.F. Singer, 2007: A
>>> comparison of tropical temperature trends with model predictions.
>>> International J. Climatology, DOI: 10.1002/joc.1651.
>>> (pdf)<http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/atmos/christy/2007_Dougless_etal.pdf>
>>>
>>> * Christy, J.R. and W.B. Norris, 2006: Satellite and VIZ-Radiosonde
>>> intercomparisons for diagnosis on non-climatic influences. J. Atmos.
>>> Oc.
>>> Tech., 23, 1181 – 1194.
>>>
>>> * Spencer, R.W., J.R. Christy, W.D. Braswell and W.B. Norris, 2006:
>>> Estimation of tropospheric temperature trends from MSU channels 2 and
>>> 4.
>>> J.
>>> Atmos. Oc. Tech., 23, 417-423.
>>>
>>> * Christy, J.R., 2006: The ever-changing climate system. Cumberland Law
>>> Review, 36 No. 3, 493-504,
>>>
>>> * Christy, J.R., W.B. Norris, K. Redmond and K. Gallo, 2006:
>>> Methodology
>>> and
>>> results of calculating central California surface temperature trends:
>>> Evidence of human-induced climate change? J. Climate, 19, 548-563.
>>>
>>> * Christy, J.R. and R.W.Spencer, 2005: Correcting temperature data
>>> sets.
>>> Science, 310, 972.
>>>
>>> * Christy, J.R. and W.B. Norris, 2004: What may we conclude about
>>> tropospheric temperature trends? Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, No. 6, L0621.
>>>
>>> * Christy, J.R. and R.W. Spencer, 2003: Reliability of satellite data
>>> sets.
>>> Science, 301, 1046-1047.
>>>
>>> * Christy, J.R., 2003: Climate Research - Response to "Wanted
>>> Scientific
>>> Leadership on Climate" by Pielke, Jr. and Sarewitz. Issues in Science
>>> and
>>> Technology. Spring 2003, 9-10.
>>>
>>> * Christy, J.R., R.W. Spencer, W.B. Norris, W.D. Braswell and D.E.
>>> Parker,
>>> 2003: Error estimates of Version 5.0 of MSU/AMSU bulk atmospheric
>>> temperatures. J. Atmos. Oceanic Tech. 20, 613-629.
>>>
>>> * Christy, J.R., 2002: When was the hottest summer? A State
>>> Climatologist
>>> struggles for an answer. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc. 83, 723-734.
>>>
>>> * Christy, J.R., D.E. Parker, S.J. Brown, I. Macadam, M. Stendel and
>>> W.B.
>>> Norris, 2001: Differential trends in tropical sea surface and
>>> atmospheric
>>> temperatures. Geophys. Res. Lett. 28, 183-186.
>>>
>>> * Winter, A., O. Tadamichi, H. Ishioroshi, T. Watanabe and J. R.
>>> Christy,
>>> 2000: A two-to-three degree cooling of Caribbean sea surface
>>> temperatures
>>> during the Little Ice Age. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 3365-3368.
>>>
>>> * Hurrell, J., S.J. Brown, K.E. Trenberth and J.R. Christy, 2000:
>>> Comparison
>>> of tropospheric temperatures from radiosondes and satellites:
>>> 1979-1998.
>>> Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 81, 2165-2177.
>>>
>>> * Gaffen, D.J., B.D. Santer, J.S. Boyle, J.R. Christy, N.E. Graham,
>>> R.J.
>>> Ross, 2000: Multidecadal changes in the vertical structure of the
>>> tropical
>>> troposphere. Science, 287, 1242-1245.
>>>
>>> * Christy, J.R., 2000: Global Climate Change: Scientific and Social
>>> Impacts.
>>> Bridges. 7, 39-57.
>>>
>>> * Christy, J.R., R.W. Spencer, and W.D. Braswell, 2000: MSU
>>> Tropospheric
>>> temperatures: Data set construction and radiosonde comparisons. J.
>>> Atmos.
>>> Oceanic Tech. 17,1153-1170.
>>>
>>> * Stendel, M., J.R. Christy and L. Bengtsson, 2000: Assessing levels of
>>> uncertainty in recent temperature time series. Climate Dynamics, 16(8),
>>> 587-601.
>>> * Christy, J.R., R.W. Spencer, and E. Lobl, 1998 Analysis of the
>>> merging
>>> procedure for the MSU daily temperature time series. J. Climate, 11,
>>> 2016-2041.
>>>
>>> * Christy, J.R., R.W. Spencer, and D. Braswell, 1997 How accurate are
>>> satellite 'thermometers'?, Nature, 389, 342-3.
>>>
>>> * Christy, J.R. , 1995 Temperature above the surface layer. Climatic
>>> Change
>>> , 30, 455-474.
>>>
>>> * Christy, J.R., R.W. Spencer and R.T. McNider, 1995 Reducing noise in
>>> the
>>> MSU daily lower tropospheric global temperature data set. J Climate ,
>>> 8,
>>> 888-896.
>>>
>>> * Christy, J.R. and J. Goodridge, 1995 Precision global temperatures
>>> from
>>> satellites and urban warming effects of non-satellite data. Atmos. Env.
>>> 29,
>>> 1957-1961.
>>>
>>> * Christy, J.R. and R. T. McNider, 1994 Satellite greenhouse signal.
>>> Nature,
>>> 367, 325.
>>>
>>> * Christy, J.R. and S.J. Drouilhet, 1994 Variability in daily, zonal
>>> mean
>>> lower-stratospheric temperatures. J. Climate, 7, 106-120.
>>>
>>> On Sat, Dec 6, 2008 at 12:59 PM, Oliver Wingenter <
>>>
>>> [EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>>>
>>> > Dear David,
>>>
>>> > The prudent and conservative to do is to be cautious and try and
>>> > maintain the status quo, which is our present climate or one not too
>>> > long ago. It does know one in this country (well a lawyer could
>>> argue
>>> > against this) any harm to conserve energy. It helps them personally,
>>> > the countries trade imbalance and slows CO2 build up.
>>>
>>> > I went to the University Alabama Huntsville web site and could not
>>> > find in the Huntsville temperature record you mentioned is better
>>> than
>>> > the analysis of Hansen and his collaborators. If this work were so
>>> > important, they would let it shine like a beacon. I think we need to
>>> > continue to move away from the fringes of science, as this is killing
>>> > precious time on real issue like solving our climate problem.
>>>
>>> > Sincerely,
>>>
>>> > Oliver Wingenter
>>>
>>> > On Dec 6, 9:24 am, "David Schnare" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>>> > > Mike:
>>>
>>> > > I'm going to ignor your ad hominem attacks, as that is the ground
>>> rule
>>> > for
>>> > > this group.
>>>
>>> > > The article raises the point of what happens when a feedback
>>> mechanism
>>> > > multiplies error. I did not cite to the entire article, but only
>>> that
>>> > > portion that properly reflects the error bands in projecting 100
>>> years
>>> > into
>>> > > the future with these models. It is an appropriate analysis for
>>> honest
>>> > > scientists, and the IPCC does no such analysis whatever. If you
>>> want to
>>> > > take issue with it, then do a proper error analysis and let us see
>>> it.
>>> > I'm
>>> > > not sure you have the expertise to do that, but I'm fairly sure you
>>> could
>>> > > find or fund someone to do it for you.
>>>
>>> > > In the mean time, if you want to argue the matter of cloud
>>> feedbacks, and
>>> > > good lord someone should, considering the massive impact of the
>>> feedback
>>> > > assumption for clouds and the error that the feedback assumption
>>> > propogates
>>> > > within GCMs, then come on over to EPA, as described below, and take
>>> on
>>> > Dick
>>> > > Lindzen. He will be explaining his concerns about the projection
>>> of
>>> > > temperature under uncertainty of the feedback effects of clouds.
>>> In
>>> > fact,
>>> > > I'll keep a careful watch for you and will take close notes that I
>>> can
>>> > share
>>> > > with the group so they can have a second hand view of your
>>> destruction of
>>> > > Lindzen's science and credibility all in one. *December 9, 2008
>>> Seminar
>>> > > (Tuesday) - 1:30 PM - Room 1117A EPA East* Topic: "Global Warming:
>>> What
>>> > Is
>>> > > It All About?" Speaker: Richard Lindzen (MIT)
>>>
>>> > > Here's the most recent electronic flyer on these sessions. Anyone
>>> in the
>>> > > Washington, D.C. area is welcome. You only need to call the
>>> contact
>>> > person
>>> > > to get access to the session.
>>>
>>> > > EPA's National Center for Environmental Economics (NCEE) will host
>>> our
>>> > next
>>> > > Climate Economics seminar
>>>
>>> ...
>>>
>>> read more »
>> >
>
> >
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