Thank you Tom. That is what I call helpful. David Schnare.
On Sun, Dec 7, 2008 at 7:59 PM, <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > In case the attachment was missed -- here it is again. > > Tom. > > ++++++++++++++++++++ > > > Dear all, > > > > Please note that the recent paper by Douglass et al. that John > > Christy co-authored has been shown to be seriously flawed by > > the following paper. > > > > Santer et al., 2008: Consistency of modelled and observed > > temperature trends in the tropical troposphere. IJoC: DOI: > > 10.1002, joc.1756 > > > > This appears in the same issue as the Douglass et al. paper. > > It shows that the statistical approach used by Douglass et > > al. is (to be polite) simply wrong, that their conclusions > > are also therefore wrong, and that a correct analysis of the > > data they use shows that there is no inconsistency between > > models and observations. > > > > The Santer paper is attached. > > > > Tom. > > > > ++++++++++++++++++++++++++ > > > >> > >> Dear David, > >> > >> Your arguments remind me about how Fred Singer tried to convince us > >> that CFC where not harmful to stratospheric ozone. He ended up > >> wasting a lot of people's time such as Sherry Rowland's, Ralph > >> Cicerone, Mike Prather and others by refuting his articles. > >> > >> However, to reiterate Ken's email, the premise of this group is global > >> warming is causing climate change. We seek through geoengineering to > >> reduce or reverse some of these side effects such as Arctic ice > >> melting, sea level rise, etc. It is my opinion that your discussions > >> on whether or not the Earth's temperature is rising or not, although > >> of interest to many, belongs in another forum. I cannot afford to > >> spend any more time discussing issues outside of geoengineering with > >> you in this Google group. > >> > >> Sincerely, > >> > >> Oliver Wingenter > >> > >> > >> On Dec 6, 2:33 pm, "David Schnare" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > >>> Oliver and Mike: > >>> > >>> I'm a climate change agnostic, and am openly supportive of > >>> Geo-Nurtring, > >>> including activities such as solar radiation management and rebalancing > >>> the > >>> carbon cycle, which would surely include energy conservation. > >>> > >>> The problem I have faced comes when someone like Prof. Jagadish Shukla, > >>> Ph.D., at the Center for Ocean, Land and Atmospheric Studies, attempted > >>> to > >>> undermine my promotion of research on solar radiation management by > >>> claiming > >>> that the scientific underpinning is too uncertain to allow its use. My > >>> response argument is that the identical GCMs used to project climate > >>> change > >>> are used to project the effects of solar radiation management. Then, > >>> individuals with a dog in this fight argue that, indeed, all the > >>> projections > >>> are too uncertain to provide a firm basis for the kinds of actions > >>> climate > >>> alarmist demand. > >>> > >>> My view is that all this uncertainty should result in application of > >>> the > >>> policy paradigm typically used to address potential, but perhaps not > >>> yet > >>> manifest threats public health - the insurance paradigm. This approach > >>> requires development of tools for use when the threat is manifest, but > >>> otherwise only marginal responses until the uncertainties can be > >>> brought > >>> into reasonable limits. [And, Ken, that is why this discussion is not > >>> about > >>> whether climate change can or should be attributed to mankind, which we > >>> all > >>> agree should be on some other discussion platform, but rather is about > >>> the > >>> quality of the science needed to support actions, including solar > >>> radiation > >>> management with large, deep and broad economic consequences, both > >>> positive > >>> and negative.) > >>> > >>> Mike MacCracken is completely correct with regard to some of the > >>> uncertainties. There do appear to be systematic feedbacks that would > >>> prevent a 100 deg. C temperature increase or decrease. Indeed, some > >>> argue > >>> that the feedbacks would prevent anything more than 10 deg shifts. > >>> Nevertheless, it's the 2 to 5 deg C shifts that concern me, and our > >>> uncertainty as to whether these will arise (in either direction, by the > >>> way, > >>> as the adverse effects of a significant drop in temperature are > >>> potentially > >>> as bad as a similar increase). The uncertainty remains so large that I > >>> don't see a basis to apply anything other than the insurance paradigm > >>> (which, by the way, reflects the precautionary principle, but is not > >>> hostage > >>> to that principle). > >>> > >>> Finally, for those of you interested in the Huntsville program, perhaps > >>> John > >>> Christy's work is the more accessible material. He heads the program > >>> and > >>> Roy Spencer is one of his staff. Here's a list of John's relevant > >>> publications on the temperature data set, leading off with the ones > >>> that > >>> discuss the relationship of the Huntsville data to that of other > >>> sources, > >>> and to projections. Note, although they spend a great deal of time > >>> measuring tropospheric temperatures, they measure and report surface > >>> temperatures for both land and ocean in their data sets. > >>> > >>> Cheers, > >>> David. > >>> > >>> Pubs link:http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/atmos/christy_pubs.html > >>> > >>> * Christy, J.R. and R.W.Spencer, 2005: Correcting temperature data > >>> sets. > >>> Science, 310, 972. > >>> > >>> * Douglass, D.H., J.R. Christy, B.D. Pearson and S.F. Singer, 2007: A > >>> comparison of tropical temperature trends with model predictions. > >>> International J. Climatology, DOI: 10.1002/joc.1651. > >>> (pdf)<http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/atmos/christy/2007_Dougless_etal.pdf> > >>> > >>> * Christy, J.R. and W.B. Norris, 2006: Satellite and VIZ-Radiosonde > >>> intercomparisons for diagnosis on non-climatic influences. J. Atmos. > >>> Oc. > >>> Tech., 23, 1181 – 1194. > >>> > >>> * Spencer, R.W., J.R. Christy, W.D. Braswell and W.B. Norris, 2006: > >>> Estimation of tropospheric temperature trends from MSU channels 2 and > >>> 4. > >>> J. > >>> Atmos. Oc. Tech., 23, 417-423. > >>> > >>> * Christy, J.R., 2006: The ever-changing climate system. Cumberland Law > >>> Review, 36 No. 3, 493-504, > >>> > >>> * Christy, J.R., W.B. Norris, K. Redmond and K. Gallo, 2006: > >>> Methodology > >>> and > >>> results of calculating central California surface temperature trends: > >>> Evidence of human-induced climate change? J. Climate, 19, 548-563. > >>> > >>> * Christy, J.R. and R.W.Spencer, 2005: Correcting temperature data > >>> sets. > >>> Science, 310, 972. > >>> > >>> * Christy, J.R. and W.B. Norris, 2004: What may we conclude about > >>> tropospheric temperature trends? Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, No. 6, L0621. > >>> > >>> * Christy, J.R. and R.W. Spencer, 2003: Reliability of satellite data > >>> sets. > >>> Science, 301, 1046-1047. > >>> > >>> * Christy, J.R., 2003: Climate Research - Response to "Wanted > >>> Scientific > >>> Leadership on Climate" by Pielke, Jr. and Sarewitz. Issues in Science > >>> and > >>> Technology. Spring 2003, 9-10. > >>> > >>> * Christy, J.R., R.W. Spencer, W.B. Norris, W.D. Braswell and D.E. > >>> Parker, > >>> 2003: Error estimates of Version 5.0 of MSU/AMSU bulk atmospheric > >>> temperatures. J. Atmos. Oceanic Tech. 20, 613-629. > >>> > >>> * Christy, J.R., 2002: When was the hottest summer? A State > >>> Climatologist > >>> struggles for an answer. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc. 83, 723-734. > >>> > >>> * Christy, J.R., D.E. Parker, S.J. Brown, I. Macadam, M. Stendel and > >>> W.B. > >>> Norris, 2001: Differential trends in tropical sea surface and > >>> atmospheric > >>> temperatures. Geophys. Res. Lett. 28, 183-186. > >>> > >>> * Winter, A., O. Tadamichi, H. Ishioroshi, T. Watanabe and J. R. > >>> Christy, > >>> 2000: A two-to-three degree cooling of Caribbean sea surface > >>> temperatures > >>> during the Little Ice Age. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 3365-3368. > >>> > >>> * Hurrell, J., S.J. Brown, K.E. Trenberth and J.R. Christy, 2000: > >>> Comparison > >>> of tropospheric temperatures from radiosondes and satellites: > >>> 1979-1998. > >>> Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 81, 2165-2177. > >>> > >>> * Gaffen, D.J., B.D. Santer, J.S. Boyle, J.R. Christy, N.E. Graham, > >>> R.J. > >>> Ross, 2000: Multidecadal changes in the vertical structure of the > >>> tropical > >>> troposphere. Science, 287, 1242-1245. > >>> > >>> * Christy, J.R., 2000: Global Climate Change: Scientific and Social > >>> Impacts. > >>> Bridges. 7, 39-57. > >>> > >>> * Christy, J.R., R.W. Spencer, and W.D. Braswell, 2000: MSU > >>> Tropospheric > >>> temperatures: Data set construction and radiosonde comparisons. J. > >>> Atmos. > >>> Oceanic Tech. 17,1153-1170. > >>> > >>> * Stendel, M., J.R. Christy and L. Bengtsson, 2000: Assessing levels of > >>> uncertainty in recent temperature time series. Climate Dynamics, 16(8), > >>> 587-601. > >>> * Christy, J.R., R.W. Spencer, and E. Lobl, 1998 Analysis of the > >>> merging > >>> procedure for the MSU daily temperature time series. J. Climate, 11, > >>> 2016-2041. > >>> > >>> * Christy, J.R., R.W. Spencer, and D. Braswell, 1997 How accurate are > >>> satellite 'thermometers'?, Nature, 389, 342-3. > >>> > >>> * Christy, J.R. , 1995 Temperature above the surface layer. Climatic > >>> Change > >>> , 30, 455-474. > >>> > >>> * Christy, J.R., R.W. Spencer and R.T. McNider, 1995 Reducing noise in > >>> the > >>> MSU daily lower tropospheric global temperature data set. J Climate , > >>> 8, > >>> 888-896. > >>> > >>> * Christy, J.R. and J. Goodridge, 1995 Precision global temperatures > >>> from > >>> satellites and urban warming effects of non-satellite data. Atmos. Env. > >>> 29, > >>> 1957-1961. > >>> > >>> * Christy, J.R. and R. T. McNider, 1994 Satellite greenhouse signal. > >>> Nature, > >>> 367, 325. > >>> > >>> * Christy, J.R. and S.J. Drouilhet, 1994 Variability in daily, zonal > >>> mean > >>> lower-stratospheric temperatures. J. Climate, 7, 106-120. > >>> > >>> On Sat, Dec 6, 2008 at 12:59 PM, Oliver Wingenter < > >>> > >>> [EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > >>> > >>> > Dear David, > >>> > >>> > The prudent and conservative to do is to be cautious and try and > >>> > maintain the status quo, which is our present climate or one not too > >>> > long ago. It does know one in this country (well a lawyer could > >>> argue > >>> > against this) any harm to conserve energy. It helps them personally, > >>> > the countries trade imbalance and slows CO2 build up. > >>> > >>> > I went to the University Alabama Huntsville web site and could not > >>> > find in the Huntsville temperature record you mentioned is better > >>> than > >>> > the analysis of Hansen and his collaborators. If this work were so > >>> > important, they would let it shine like a beacon. I think we need to > >>> > continue to move away from the fringes of science, as this is killing > >>> > precious time on real issue like solving our climate problem. > >>> > >>> > Sincerely, > >>> > >>> > Oliver Wingenter > >>> > >>> > On Dec 6, 9:24 am, "David Schnare" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > >>> > > Mike: > >>> > >>> > > I'm going to ignor your ad hominem attacks, as that is the ground > >>> rule > >>> > for > >>> > > this group. > >>> > >>> > > The article raises the point of what happens when a feedback > >>> mechanism > >>> > > multiplies error. I did not cite to the entire article, but only > >>> that > >>> > > portion that properly reflects the error bands in projecting 100 > >>> years > >>> > into > >>> > > the future with these models. It is an appropriate analysis for > >>> honest > >>> > > scientists, and the IPCC does no such analysis whatever. If you > >>> want to > >>> > > take issue with it, then do a proper error analysis and let us see > >>> it. > >>> > I'm > >>> > > not sure you have the expertise to do that, but I'm fairly sure you > >>> could > >>> > > find or fund someone to do it for you. > >>> > >>> > > In the mean time, if you want to argue the matter of cloud > >>> feedbacks, and > >>> > > good lord someone should, considering the massive impact of the > >>> feedback > >>> > > assumption for clouds and the error that the feedback assumption > >>> > propogates > >>> > > within GCMs, then come on over to EPA, as described below, and take > >>> on > >>> > Dick > >>> > > Lindzen. He will be explaining his concerns about the projection > >>> of > >>> > > temperature under uncertainty of the feedback effects of clouds. > >>> In > >>> > fact, > >>> > > I'll keep a careful watch for you and will take close notes that I > >>> can > >>> > share > >>> > > with the group so they can have a second hand view of your > >>> destruction of > >>> > > Lindzen's science and credibility all in one. *December 9, 2008 > >>> Seminar > >>> > > (Tuesday) - 1:30 PM - Room 1117A EPA East* Topic: "Global Warming: > >>> What > >>> > Is > >>> > > It All About?" Speaker: Richard Lindzen (MIT) > >>> > >>> > > Here's the most recent electronic flyer on these sessions. Anyone > >>> in the > >>> > > Washington, D.C. area is welcome. You only need to call the > >>> contact > >>> > person > >>> > > to get access to the session. > >>> > >>> > > EPA's National Center for Environmental Economics (NCEE) will host > >>> our > >>> > next > >>> > > Climate Economics seminar > >>> > >>> ... > >>> > >>> read more » > >> > > > > > > > > <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Frameset//EN"> > > <html><head> > > <meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=ISO-8859-1"> > > > > <meta name="robots" content="noindex,nofollow"> > > <title>National Center for Atmospheric Research > > Climate and Global Dynamics Division > > </title> > > </head><frameset cols="150, *" id="fs1"> > > <frame src="Santer-IJoC2008_files/left_main.htm" name="left" > > frameborder="1"> > > <frame src="Santer-IJoC2008_files/right_main.pdf" name="right" > > frameborder="1"> > > </frameset> > > </html> > > > > > > -- David W. 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