agree 100%
On Fri, May 13, 2011 at 3:21 PM, Hawkins, Dave <[email protected]> wrote: > Correct Ken. > > But the more relevant question is a political science question: what would > the impact be of a substantial SRM program on various countries' > willingness to undertake a serious emission mitigation program. We cannot > assume that these two societal decisions are independent. Personally, I > don't think the answer is at all clear whether consideration of SRM would > increase or decrease a country's commitment to GHG mitigation efforts and > I suspect the answer would differ substantially from country to country. > > I do think there is a serious risk that "putting SRM on the table" could > be embraced by some policymakers as an alternative to GHG mitigation and > that would be a very unfortunate result. But I also think that it will > not be an effective response by those of us who worry about such an > embrace to argue against any SRM research programs. Rather, we should be > thinking about how to design the conversation regarding SRM research to > minimize the probability that it will be viewed as something that should > be pursued* instead of* GHG mitigation. > > David > > -----Original Message----- > From: [email protected] [ > mailto:[email protected] <[email protected]>] On > Behalf Of Ken Caldeira > Sent: Friday, May 13, 2011 8:49 AM > To: [email protected] > Cc: [email protected] > Subject: Re: [geo] Re: New law review symposium issue on geoengineering > > This may be a distinction without a difference, but there is no > > long-term commitment to SRM once begun. Within a few years, the added > > aerosols will be out of the atmosphere. > > The long-term commitment comes from the long atmospheric lifetime of > > the CO2 concentration perturbation. Thus, the commitment to > > intergenerational transfer of risk seems to be a result of the CO2 > > emission, not the stratospheric aerosols. > > Given some specified future CO2 emissions trajectory, would future > > generations prefer us to keep the Earth cool or let it get warm? In > > either case, we are handing them a perturbed climate system. I do not > > think we can answer a priori which action on our part future > > generations are more likely to prefer. In either case, we are handing > > future generations an "unnatural" state of affairs. > > I would assume that future generations would prefer us to hand them a > > world with "natural" levels of atmospheric CO2 and planetary > > temperature. However, if CO2 levels are high, the question of whether > > they would prefer a hot world without stratospheric aerosols or a cool > > world with stratospheric aerosols cannot be answered with armchair > > philosophizing. We need scientific research to help evaluate the risks > > of each course of action. > > ___________________________________________________ > > Ken Caldeira > > Carnegie Institution Dept of Global Ecology > > 260 Panama Street, Stanford, CA 94305 USA > > +1 650 704 7212 [email protected] > > http://dge.stanford.edu/labs/caldeiralab @kencaldeira > > > On Fri, May 13, 2011 at 7:17 AM, Michael Hayes <[email protected]> > wrote: > > > One last thought, Wil. > > > Don't bet on rare combinations! Casinos make Lots of money of > those.....for > > > a reason! > > > Michael > > > > > > -- > > > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > > > "geoengineering" group. > > > To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send email to > > > [email protected]. > > > For more options, visit this group at > > > http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en. > > > > > -- > > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "geoengineering" group. > > To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. > > To unsubscribe from this group, send email to > [email protected]. > > For more options, visit this group at > http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en. > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en.
