I understand your point, but others argue the precise reverse, eg
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg19826501.500-why-the-demise-of-civilisation-may-be-inevitable.html


i.e. that the more complex a society becomes, the more inherently prone to
collapse it is.  That's maybe why the more advanced, heirarchical
civilisations in the past (e.g. the Maya) are the ones we're aware of
collapsing.  The less developed ones, such as hunter-gatherer societies,
are inherently more robust, and their cultures often survive until swamped
by a more sophisticated civilisation.

Another view of civilisation collapse, from the same magazine is here
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21328462.100-boom-and-doom-revisiting-prophecies-of-collapse.html
This study  incorporates social, economic and environmental factors into a
crude model, which nevertheless seems to have been somewhat accurate.

I think talk of our civilisation's survival is greatly exaggerated.  I
really don't think we can be honest as geoengineers unless we view societal
collapse as a likely outcome of our failure to successfully manage the
climate.  It seems fairly likely anyhow, and avoiding climate change
problems will just string it out a bit longer.

Both the attached articles are absolutely fascinating, and I really hope
you can take time to read them.

A



On 27 February 2012 00:52, David Appell <david.app...@gmail.com> wrote:

>  Andrew Lockley wrote:
> >> The trouble with assuming we won't cause a collapse of the ecosystem is
> that there's quite a lot to suggest we might do just that. Even setting
> aside the history of various civilisations trashed by minor climate tweaks,
> and the extinction of prior forms of the Homo genus caused by slightly
> larger climate swings, we've still got quite a lot to think about. <<
>
> Granted, there is a lot to think about. But as to the point of historical
> civilizations collapsing from minor climate tweaks... those were all rather
> primitive societies with few technologies with which to address the changes
> they faced. Today we have vast abilities to alter our local environment, if
> need be, by building canals to transport water, desalinate seawater,
> genetically alter plants, build seawalls, etc etc. Presumably those in the
> future will have even more options, and cheaper energy to implement them
> with.
>
> Analogies to past civilizations can easily be stretched too far.
>
> David
>
> --
> David Appell, independent science journalist
> e: david.app...@gmail.com
> w: http://www.davidappell.com
> m: St. Helens, OR  USA
>
>

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