For a start, oceans provide 12% of the global food supply. Losing all that could be the tipping point on its own, as a starving society unravels into a vicious circle of conflict, de-industrialisation and de-urbanisation. However, a far more serious concern is the change in the oceans which would lead to them becoming sterilised. Likely, an ocean anoxic event is the precursor event.
As I understand it, the Great Dying (P-T extinction) provides an analogue. Anoxic oceans were linked with a mass extinction of land biodiversity. I understand that a proposed mechanism for this is the creation of an atmosphere laden with H2S and lacking a functioning ozone layer. That's wouldn't be promising for the Chicken McNugget supply. A On Jun 8, 2013 10:01 AM, "Ken Caldeira" <[email protected]> wrote: > Andrew, > > Please respond to what I said and not what you imagine I said. > > The issue has to do with a hypothetical case of sterilization of the > oceans. There was no reference to climate change in my statement. > > I challenge anyone to construct a plausible causal chain that would lead > from sterilization of the oceans to downfall of human civilization. > > This is not an expression of my values, this is an expression of my > scientific understanding. > > Let all realize that I spend a large chunk of my time trying to > investigate and protect human threats to ocean ecosystems. > > *This Scientist Aims High to Save the World's Coral Reefs* > > http://www.npr.org/player/v2/mediaPlayer.html?action=1&t=1&islist=false&id=176344300&m=178462367<http://www.npr.org/player/v2/mediaPlayer.html?action=1&t=1&islist=false&id=176344300&m=178462367> > (Aired Monday, 4/22 on NPR's All Things Considered; 7 minutes, 49 seconds) > > Best, > > Ken > > On Saturday, June 8, 2013, Andrew Lockley wrote: > >> In my view, history provides the best guide to the future. >> >> Civilisations are not long lived at the best of times, and their messy >> and painful demise is usually accompanied by minor climate disruption. >> >> The more complex the civilisation, the less robust it is, as there is a >> greater interconnectedness, and hence a greater ability to transmit shocks >> through the system. To further explain : our ancestors would not have heard >> about an antipodean earthquake, whereas now such a tremor can send markets >> into meltdown in minutes. >> >> The idea that despite this much more vulnerable society, the American >> middle class will survive the worst climate change in human history without >> disruption to the Chicken McNugget supply, or to the ability of Hollywood >> to produce Game of Thrones, is completely bizarre. >> >> Someone, somewhere will likely be eating a piece of battered chicken >> meat. Someone, somewhere will probably still have a working digital camera >> and some kind of transmission equipment . This does not equate to an >> uninterrupted experience for the US middle class. >> >> A >> On Jun 8, 2013 8:42 AM, "Emily L-B" <[email protected]> wrote: >> >> ** >> Hi all, I'd propose you put this hypothesis to Dan Laffolley (you can >> google him). >> There are so many responses to this I am overwhelmed and can't respond >> coherently. Apart from anything else, my understanding is that decay of >> ocean matter would release noxious gases. So while there may be O2, it may >> be polluted. >> Best wishes, >> Emily. >> Sent from my BlackBerry >> ------------------------------ >> *From: * Ken Caldeira <[email protected]> >> *Sender: * [email protected] >> *Date: *Sat, 8 Jun 2013 15:05:06 +0800 >> *To: *[email protected]<[email protected]> >> *ReplyTo: * [email protected] >> *Cc: *[email protected]<[email protected]> >> *Subject: *[geo] The Caldeira "If you Sterilize the Ocean We'd Still >> Have Chicken McNuggets Hypothesis" questioned by Ocean expert >> >> David, >> >> The residence time of oxygen in the atmosphere + ocean + biosphere with >> respect to the lithosphere is millions of years. >> >> There are about 4 x 10 ** 19 mol of O2 in the atmosphere. The rate of >> removal of this O2 by organic carbon weathering is about 4 x 10 ** 12 mol >> per year. I am not sure about pyrite oxidation and so on but you can check >> out the attached paper for an entree into the literature. >> >> In any case, the 1000 year number you cite is not based on any reliable >> literature value. A better guess might be that we would have breathable >> oxygen on the order of a million years if you eliminated all life on land >> and sea. If life were eliminated in the oceans only, I don't know of >> anything that would impede our ability to eat Chicken McNuggets and watch >> TV indefinitely. >> >> Let me make it clear that I value life in the oceans quite highly and do >> not at all like Chicken McNuggets. (For some reason, nutters on the web >> think that you can't discuss anything unless you are advocating actually >> doing it.) >> >> Best, >> >> Ken >> >> On Saturday, June 8, 2013, David Lewis wrote: >> >> During the Q&A after his 2012 AGU talk entitled "*Ocean Acidification: >> Adaptive Challenge or Extinction Threat?*", Ken Caldeira said: "I >> actually think* if you sterilize the ocean*, yes vulnerable people would >> be hurt, poor people would be hurt, but that* we'd still have Chicken >> McNuggets and TV shows and basically we'd be OK* " A video of Ken's >> entire talk is* available >> here*<http://fallmeeting.agu.org/2012/events/gc44c-special-lecture-in-ocean-acidification-consequences-of-excess-carbon-dioxide-in-the-marine-environment-video-on-demand/>. >> He lays out the McNugget/Ocean Sterilization hypothesis starting at *minute >> 50:20*. >> >> This seemed to be Ken's answer to the question he posed in his subtitle, >> i.e. is homo sapiens facing a threat of extinction as a result of any >> particular odd behavior the species is engaged in at the moment such as >> carelessly dumping waste gases into the atmosphere which are changing the >> chemistry of the global ocean? >> >> Callum Roberts, a scientist who studies the impact of human activity on >> marine ecosystems, addressed an audience at the University of Sydney this >> year where he discussed the many problems human activity is causing life in >> the oceans. He interrupted his litany of woe briefly to tell the audience >> of some "*good news*" he had: "even if all the ocean's primary >> productivity were shot down tomorrow,* it will still be a long time >> before we suffocate *because there's plenty of oxygen in the atmosphere, >> enough for more than 1,000 years. So hopefully we can get our heads aro >> >> > > -- > _______________ > Ken Caldeira > > Carnegie Institution for Science > Dept of Global Ecology > 260 Panama Street, Stanford, CA 94305 USA > +1 650 704 7212 [email protected] > http://dge.stanford.edu/labs/caldeiralab @kencaldeira > > *Caldeira Lab is hiring postdoctoral researchers.* > *http://dge.stanford.edu/labs/caldeiralab/Caldeira_employment.html* > > Check out the profile of me on NPR's All Things > Considered<http://www.npr.org/2013/04/22/176344300/this-scientist-aims-high-to-save-the-worlds-coral-reefs> > > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. 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