Arctic sea ice is not going to vanish this year. At the moment it is at
its highest extent since 2003, as measured with JAXA:
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv
Last year's record low was aided by an usual mid-summer cyclone.... The
long-term trend is definitely down, but it's going to fluctuate on its
way there.
David
http://www.davidappell.com
------------------------------------------------------------------------
*From: * Erik Neumann <[email protected]>
*Sender: * [email protected]
*Date: *Fri, 21 Jun 2013 07:35:01 -0700 (PDT)
*To: *<[email protected]>
*ReplyTo: * [email protected]
*Subject: *[geo] Prediction: Arctic sea ice will vanish in 2013
Article published June 10 2013 on Sierra Club Canada website:
Why Arctic sea ice will vanish in 2013 by Paul Beckwith
http://www.sierraclub.ca/en/AdultDiscussionPlease
Not peer-reviewed science I know, but he's a Ph.D. student in
climatology. The animation
<http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ljHI0VITgk> he made is somewhat
alarming, showing how the ice speed is related to early thinning this
season.
Quote from the article:
In previous years, when cyclones (low pressure storm systems)
moved over sea ice, there was little noticeable effect. However,
last August (2012) -- like a giant blender -- a massive cyclone
invaded the Arctic Ocean basin and smashed around sea ice for
roughly 8 days. In the end, a staggering 0.8 million square
kilometres of sea ice was lost (a roughly 20% reduction from the
year before). By mid-September the icecap was at a record low
volume (best illustrated in this YouTube video
<http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgiMBxaL19M> titled “Arctic sea
ice minimum volumes 1979-2012”).
Within the last few weeks, cyclonic activity has returned and once
again caused substantial thinning and weakening of the sea ice
near the North Pole. Ice near the center of cyclonic activity,
recently 2 to 2.5 metres thick (/light blue in my animation/), has
thinned to roughly 1.25 metres (/dark blue in my animation/). This
in less than 2 weeks: unprecedented so early in the melt season.
More significantly, in the last few days a gaping “hole” has
appeared in the much thicker ice just north of the Canadian Arctic
Archipelago. Ice that was recently 3.5 to 4 metres thick (/yellow
in my animation/) is now less than 2 metres thick in the /*hole*/.
//The /*hole*///is likely due to a combination of divergence of
the ice away from the rotating cyclone center, and the upwelling
(churning up) of warm, salty sea water below. The most rapid
melting and ice deterioration is occurring below the surface
(where the cold surface air temperature can’t slow melting).
The magnitude of the most recent cyclonic activity is not unusual,
although the persistence is. What is also new in the equation is
the ability of these common cyclones to degrade the ice, and do so
very early in the melt season. Also new is the substantial
increase in amplitude, frequency and duration of cyclonic activity
in the Arctic Ocean basin. The thinning ice cover not only breaks
up easier now (even by relatively small and weak cyclones), more
open water leads to an increase in melting and storm intensity.
It’s for all these reasons I find it extremely difficult to
comprehend how any sea ice will be left after this year’s summer
‘melt season’.
Clearly this is a minority viewpoint, and likely he is "crying wolf".
OTOH, chaotic systems can shift rapidly when you get near
instability. And in many fields, it's the young researchers who can
see new phenomena that oldsters can't see.
Geoengineers get ready. Your moment in the spotlight is coming soon.
--ErikN
--
David Appell, independent science writer
e: [email protected]
w: http://www.davidappell.com
t: @davidappell
b: http://davidappell.blogspot.com
m: Salem, OR
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