In related news: "Research at Russia's North Pole-40, a station located aboard an ice floe in the Arctic, has ceased following an emergency evacuation of personnel. The ice upon which the station was built had begun to melt at an alarming rate and split into six pieces."
more here: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/06/11/arctic-research-station-evacuated-climate-change_n_3422577.html?utm_hp_ref=climate-change >________________________________ > From: Erik Neumann <[email protected]> >To: [email protected] >Sent: Friday, June 21, 2013 7:35 AM >Subject: [geo] Prediction: Arctic sea ice will vanish in 2013 > > > >Article published June 10 2013 on Sierra Club Canada website: > > >Why Arctic sea ice will vanish in 2013 by Paul Beckwith >http://www.sierraclub.ca/en/AdultDiscussionPlease > > > >Not peer-reviewed science I know, but he's a Ph.D. student in climatology. The >animation he made is somewhat alarming, showing how the ice speed is related >to early thinning this season. > > >Quote from the article: >In previous years, when cyclones (low pressure storm systems) moved over sea >ice, there was little noticeable effect. However, last August (2012) -- like a >giant blender -- a massive cyclone invaded the Arctic Ocean basin and smashed >around sea ice for roughly 8 days. In the end, a staggering 0.8 million square >kilometres of sea ice was lost (a roughly 20% reduction from the year before). >By mid-September the icecap was at a record low volume (best illustrated in >this YouTube video titled “Arctic sea ice minimum volumes 1979-2012”). >>Within the last few weeks, cyclonic activity has returned and once again >>caused substantial thinning and weakening of the sea ice near the North Pole. >>Ice near the center of cyclonic activity, recently 2 to 2.5 metres thick >>(light blue in my animation), has thinned to roughly 1.25 metres (dark blue >>in my animation). This in less than 2 weeks: unprecedented so early in the >>melt season. More significantly, in the last few days a gaping “hole” has >>appeared in the much thicker ice just north of the Canadian Arctic >>Archipelago. Ice that was recently 3.5 to 4 metres thick (yellow in my >>animation) is now less than 2 metres thick in the hole. >>The hole is likely due to a combination of divergence of the ice away from >>the rotating cyclone center, and the upwelling (churning up) of warm, salty >>sea water below. The most rapid melting and ice deterioration is occurring >>below the surface (where the cold surface air temperature can’t slow melting). >>The magnitude of the most recent cyclonic activity is not unusual, although >>the persistence is. What is also new in the equation is the ability of these >>common cyclones to degrade the ice, and do so very early in the melt season. >>Also new is the substantial increase in amplitude, frequency and duration of >>cyclonic activity in the Arctic Ocean basin. The thinning ice cover not only >>breaks up easier now (even by relatively small and weak cyclones), more open >>water leads to an increase in melting and storm intensity. >>It’s for all these reasons I find it extremely difficult to comprehend how >>any sea ice will be left after this year’s summer ‘melt season’. > > >Clearly this is a minority viewpoint, and likely he is "crying wolf". OTOH, >chaotic systems can shift rapidly when you get near instability. And in many >fields, it's the young researchers who can see new phenomena that oldsters >can't see. > > >Geoengineers get ready. Your moment in the spotlight is coming soon. > > >--ErikN > > > > -- >You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >"geoengineering" group. >To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an >email to [email protected]. >To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering. >For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. > > > > > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
