Rob

Thank you for your support about coagulation.

I am puzzled about your requirement for a cooling of 20 W/m2.

The mean solar input to the equator is 440 W/m2. The mean annual to Patagonia 240 W/m2. At mid summer the poles get about 540 W/m2. I work on a engineering average of 340 W/m2 but hope to improve on this by intelligent seasonal migration. If the 2 x CO2 problem is 4 W/m2 this is only 1.18% of 340 W/m2. If only 20% of the planet has clouds all we have to reflect is 5.88 W/m2.

You also write that it is unlikely that uniform seeding is possible. If we use satellite data to tell us where to send spray vessels we should eventually be able to cherry pick the best places and do better than uniform.

Stephen





Emeritus Professor of Engineering Design. School of Engineering. University of Edinburgh. Mayfield Road. Edinburgh EH9 3JL. Scotland [email protected] Tel +44 (0)131 650 5704 Cell 07795 203 195 WWW.see.ed.ac.uk/~shs YouTube Jamie Taylor Power for Change


On 01/01/2015 16:47, Rob Wood wrote:
A straightforward way to prevent plume sinking (if indeed it turns out to be 
undesirable for particle dispersion), is to heat the stack. This happens 
already on all cargo ships.

I don't believe that coagulation will be a showstopper although experiments 
will be necessary to confirm this because coagulation depends on the exact size 
distribution and charging and this cannot be predicted from modeling alone. 
Some degree of charging may well occur (not my expertise) but this will likely 
depend on the spray method. Effervescent spray atomization (see Cooper et al. 
article in Phil Trans 2014 special issue), does not seem to make a lot of 
charged particles.

Observations show that shiptracks are rarely observed in boundary layers deeper 
than 1km. Globally, most stratocumulus occurs in PBLs deeper than this. But 
shiptracks themselves (although highly visible) are not necessary for MCB to 
work. Greater dispersion in the subcloud layer prior to ascent into the 
stratocumulus deck in the intermittently coupled layer above, might increase 
efficacy by producing a more evenly distributed droplet concentration 
enhancement (Stephen alluded to this).

That said, I disagree that the albedo enhancement required (e.g., to offset CO2 
doubling globally, i.e., about 4 W/m2) is small. Only 20% of the planet has clouds 
that may be seedable, so the solar reflection of seeded clouds would need to be 
enhanced by >20 W/m2 (this number being generous because it is highly unlikely 
that uniform seeding is possible). This is about one fifth to one quarter of 
typical cloud albedo.

More important than whether the human eye can detect the brightening, is that 
spatial albedo enhancement gradients, and changes to the condensate amounts due 
to e.g. drizzle suppression, will drive turbulence changes and also regional 
scale circulation changes that produce cloud adjustments that could reduce or 
enhance the initial enhancement. For example, it is known that on average, 
condensate amounts in shiptracks are lower than in surrounding clouds (e.g. 
Coakley and Walsh 2002, Chen et al. 2014) because reduced precipitation in the 
track leads to stronger turbulence which drives greater entrainment of dry free 
tropospheric air that thins the cloud layer. Ackerman et al. (2004, Nature) 
first noticed this in large eddy models, and I wrote a paper that attempted to 
explain this behavior with a simple model (Wood, J. Atmos. Sci. 2007). These 
responses are difficult to capture in climate models as they depend upon 
subgrid scale processes that are poorly represented in models!
   with re
solutions greater than a few hundred meters horizontal and a few meters in the 
vertical. A big challenge. This/might/  be the biggest showstopper of all for 
MCB.
Regards

Rob


On 1/1/2015 4:36 AM, Alan Gadian wrote:

Stephen,

I am afraid I cannot comment on the electrification, but I would like to emphasise the dynamics again. WRF (and WRF Chem ) can be driven either by an observed real data, or in an idealised WRF - LEM form ( with no BL parameterisation scheme) driven from an atmospheric profile

In all LEM modelling of Sc, an important feature is always entrainment and mixing. The horizontal and vertical velocities and the "rolls" or "eddies" are critical in this. If there is a decoupled layer near the surface, for example, as is sometimes / often observed then this will critically affect the dispersion. I am still uncertain what was run in the WRF chem simulation, what BL scheme was used in the IGAP runs, but the
argument I am proposing was that the velocity structure is unlikely to
be correct, unless actually verified with observations.

I am trying the think of examples. Yamaguchi & Feingold , 2014, show the changes in turbulence patterns, Wang and Fiengold (2009) and other work
including that of Wood ( not mentioned as he is part of this discussion)
show examples of this importance of the turbulence and eddies.

I know that volcanoes are completely different, and this work is not at the required resolution for SC clouds, but the attached poster, probably without video, is some work that we did. We had to run WRF in LEM mode to get anywhere near the correct eddy structures for the near volcanic plume eddies. Again looking at the high resolution modelling work of AndrejczuK (some of which Rob was again involved with), the role of the interaction between the dynamical eddy structure and the microphysics and latent heat exchange is crucial.

Thus again, I feel that there are a lot of uncertainties in the modelling work, and the only way to see if MCB works is to do an experiment

Alan Gadian





On Thu, 1 Jan 2015, Stephen Salter wrote:

Hi All

The words 'charge' and 'electrostatic' do not appear in Stuart et 2013.
People cleaning oil tanks in the 1960's found the painful way that its is
difficult NOT to generate charge, see
http://www.infostatic.co.uk/Papers/TankWashingRisks.pdf .  There are at
least two ways by which we can control charge.

The Stuart paper used a size distribution of 100 size bins, spaced
logarithmically between 10 nm and 10 μm in wet diameter rather than
mono-disperse spray.  This is a range of 1000:1.  I hope to keep within
20%.  Coagulation requires a relative velocity between drops. Viscous
forces are very large at sub-micron dimension. Particles will behave like sand in honey. Small scale turbulence will tend to vary the velocity of
particles but while the Stokes drag force goes with the first power of
diameter the mass resisting acceleration goes with the cube. If there is a
wide range of drop diameters, local turbulence will produce much larger
range of relative velocities. It would be useful to know coagulation rates
for narrow ranges of drop diameter.

In my paper on the detection of small contrast changes I assumed a loss of
50% which would not be a show stopper.

In figure 2 of of the Stuart paper there is no sign of any initial drop due
to evaporative cooling.

Stephen


Emeritus Professor of Engineering Design. School of Engineering. University of Edinburgh. Mayfield Road. Edinburgh EH9 3JL. Scotland [email protected] Tel +44 (0)131 650 5704 Cell 07795 203 195 WWW.see.ed.ac.uk/~shs YouTube
Jamie Taylor Power for Change

On 01/01/2015 02:48, Alan Gadian wrote:
      Rob,
I agree here with you.  With LEM modelling with WRF Chem, the bdy
layer schemes can be very diffusive.  Ignoring the electrostatics
charge element, I am concerned that the PDFs of the vertical
velocities are critical.  From experience 20m is not good enough
resolution in the vertical. How does the model cope with changes in
cloud droplet number, as seen in andrejczuk  (2012 aNd 2014) .  The
vocals profiles provide data on the BL dynamical profiles, and I fear
with the wef chem LEM results, the dynamics and hence the dispersion
are inadequately represented.  WRF Chem is about 20 times slower than
WRF without the chemistry package, and thus the representation of the
dynamics has to be compromised for the inclusion of the chemistry.  I
would like it clarified about how these results compare with
observations.

The papers of Andrejcuck provide a surprisingly efficient and rapid
dispersion, and compare reasonably well with observations.

Alan


T --- Alan Gadian, NCAS, UK, ( sent from a mobile device ) Email:
[email protected]  or [email protected]
Tel: +44 / 0  775 451 9009 or +44 / 0  113 343 7246
T ---

On 31 Dec 2014, at 23:46, Rob Wood <[email protected]> wrote:

      Dear All,

      I think that some degree of coagulation given such
      localized point sources of large numbers of particles is
      inevitable, as shown in the paper by Stuart et al. (2013).
      This will also be the case with charged particles.
      Nevertheless, I don't think that this is necessarily a
      fundamental limitation. After all, shiptrack formation,
      where even larger numbers of particles are produced, still
      occurs. Coagulation must be considered in the
      calculations. That said, in our recent paper (Connolly et
      al. 2014), we found significant albedo enhancement in a
      parcel model even with quite broad size distributions. The
      optimal median particle size becomes smaller as the size
      distribution spread broadens (e.g. from coagulation). For
      broader distributions typical of those produced in lab
      tests, the optimal median droplet diameters need to be
      somewhat smaller than 0.1 micron.

      I tend to agree with Stephen that near-surface spreading
      due to initial negative buoyancy from evaporation of water
      from the small seawater droplets may not necessarily be a
      tremendous problem for the reasons he states. This has not
      yet been considered in any model that I know of, but could
      easily be done with large eddy models.

      Rob Wood


      On 12/30/2014 8:35 AM, Stephen Salter wrote:
      Hi All

      Piers Forster's  concern in his video about spray
      coagulation would be reduced if his model had used
      mono-disperse drops with an electrostatic charge as
      specified in our  2008 paper on sea-going hardware.

      His concern about detecting the effectiveness is
      because the cloud contrast change needed to save
      humanity is below the detection threshold of the
      human eye.  However contrast can be enhanced by the
      superposition of satellite aligned images.  I have
      previously circulated some to this group and hope
      that the idea will give quantitative results in a
      few days.

      The picture of spray plumes shown in box 3 of his
      IAGP practicalities note must have been using warm
      air from a chimney.  Depending on the temperature
      and relative humidity of the surrounding ambient air
      there will be several degrees of temperature drop
      due to the latent heat of evaporation.  The increase
      of density will lead to a rapid fall of the cooled
      air which will spread out over the sea surface like
      a spilt liquid until it has been warmed by the large
      area of contact with sea. You can show this fall and
      dispersion very cheaply with a pond fogger, £19.99
      from Maplin.  We want this dispersion because a low
      dose over a large area is more effective than a high
      point dose.

      Forster seems to be ignoring completely the idea of
      coded modulation of CCN concentration in climate
      models even though the satisfactory operation was
      demonstrated by Ben Parkes doing a PhD in Forster's
      own Department at Leeds in 2012. This might allow us
      to get an everywhere-to-everywhere transfer function
      of marine cloud brightening and win-win result with
      more rain in dry places and less in wet.  The high
      frequency response means that we can give a tactical
      spraying based local day-to-day observations.

      It is a puzzle that the Parkes thesis has, yet
      again, vanished from the Leeds University website.

      Stephen



      Emeritus Professor of Engineering Design. School of
      Engineering. University of Edinburgh. Mayfield Road.
      Edinburgh EH9 3JL. Scotland [email protected] Tel
      +44 (0)131 650 5704 Cell 07795 203 195
WWW.see.ed.ac.uk/~shs YouTube Jamie Taylor Power for
      Change
On 28/12/2014 20:03, Andrew Lockley wrote:

      Integrated Assessment of Geoengineering
      Proposals…: http://youtu.be/FFjzzfCLCqw

      Poster's note : I personally have found it
      very difficult to access and appraise the
      science behind the IAGP project. Despite this,
      a vast amount of publicity has been obtained
      for the project. I think the IAGP team could
      do more to encourage early, in-depth access to
      their material, particularly bearing in mind
      the huge media interest.

      --
      You received this message because you are
      subscribed to the Google Groups
      "geoengineering" group.
      To unsubscribe from this group and stop
      receiving emails from it, send an email to
[email protected].
      To post to this group, send email to
[email protected].
      Visit this group at
http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering.
      For more options, visit
https://groups.google.com/d/optout.


--
You received this message because you are subscribed to
the Google Groups "geoengineering" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails
from it, send an email to
[email protected].
To post to this group, send email to
[email protected].
Visit this group at
http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering.
For more options, visit
https://groups.google.com/d/optout.


The University of Edinburgh is a charitable body, registered in
Scotland, with registration number SC005336.


--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the
Google Groups "geoengineering" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from
it, send an email to
[email protected].
To post to this group, send email to
[email protected].
Visit this group at
http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering.
For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.







--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups 
"geoengineering" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email 
to [email protected].
To post to this group, send email to [email protected].
Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering.
For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
The University of Edinburgh is a charitable body, registered in
Scotland, with registration number SC005336.

-- 
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups 
"geoengineering" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email 
to [email protected].
To post to this group, send email to [email protected].
Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering.
For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.

Reply via email to