Poster's note : this is a seriously smart experiment. It's the equivalent of wargames for the climate.
Assessing the controllability of Arctic sea ice extent by sulfate aerosol geoengineering L. S. Jackson et al DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062240 Geophysical Research Letters Correspondence to: [email protected] Accepted manuscript online: 23 JAN 2015 09:06AM EST Keywords: Geoengineering; Sequential decision making; Arctic sea ice; Climate change Abstract In an assessment of how Arctic sea ice cover could be remediated in a warming world, we simulated the injection of SO2 into the Arctic stratosphere making annual adjustments to injection rates. We treated one climate model realisation as a surrogate ‘real world’ with imperfect ‘observations’ and no re-running or reference to control simulations. SO2 injection rates were proposed using a novel model predictive control regime which incorporated a second simpler climate model to forecast ‘optimal’ decision pathways. Commencing the simulation in 2018, Arctic sea ice cover was remediated by 2043 and maintained until solar geoengineering was terminated. We found quantifying climate side effects problematic because internal climate variability hampered detection of regional climate changes beyond the Arctic. Nevertheless, through decision maker learning and the accumulation of at least 10 years’ time series data exploited through an annual review cycle, uncertainties in observations and forcings were successfully managed. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
