http://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/6/1635/2015/esdd-6-1635-2015.html

Geoengineering as a design problem

08 Sep 2015
Abstract. Understanding the climate impacts of solar geoengineering is
essential for evaluating its benefits and risks. Most previous simulations
have prescribed a particular strategy and evaluated its modeled effects.
Here we turn this approach around by first choosing example climate
objectives and then designing a strategy to meet those objectives in
climate models.

There are four essential criteria for designing a strategy: (i) an explicit
specification of the objectives, (ii) defining what climate forcing agents
to modify so the objectives are met, (iii) a method for managing
uncertainties, and (iv) independent verification of the strategy in an
evaluation model.

We demonstrate this design perspective through two multi-objective
examples. First, changes in Arctic temperature and the position of tropical
precipitation due to CO2 increases are offset by adjusting high latitude
insolation in each hemisphere independently. Second, three different
latitude-dependent patterns of insolation are modified to offset
CO2-induced changes in global mean temperature, interhemispheric
temperature asymmetry, and the equator-to-pole temperature gradient. In
both examples, the "design" and "evaluation" models are state-of-the-art
fully coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models.

Citation: Kravitz, B., MacMartin, D. G., Wang, H., and Rasch, P. J.:
Geoengineering as a design problem, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6,
1635-1710, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1635-2015, 2015.

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