Le dimanche 17 avril 2016 21:25:14 UTC+2, NORTHCOTT Michael a écrit : > > Hi John > > The course of action to slow the rate of warming (it is 0.1 degree per > decade not 0.2) and ultimately to stop it requires all of the following. > Young people and climate activists the world over are calling for these > things and campaigning actively and at cost of their freedom sometimes to > bring them about: > > 1. Ending tropical forest burning > 2. Stopping building of new coal and oil fired power stations (Turkey and > India and S Africa are planning 100s) and ending coal extraction by China, > Indonesia, and even Australia, Germany US and UK who have no conceivable > need to continue extracting the stuff given the wealth already at the > disposal of their citizens and corporations > 3. Closing existing coal and oil fired electric power plants > 4. Reforesting uplands, reducing sheep grazing, and increasing uptake of > co2 in agric land with biochar, compost etc > 5. Ending expansion of air sea and road travel and moving all road and sea > travel to electric vehicles and wind. Rationing air travel to gradually > shift international and national travellers to other means. > 6. Moving all electricity production to renewable power and battery / > reservoir storage of back up power. > 7. Reengineering older buildings with insulation. > 8. Requiring all new builds to generate own power and be zero carbon > 9. Reducing shipping and flying of food by favouring local over global > food production. > 10. Ending large scale animal husbandry and moving mainstream human > protein requirements to beans, vegetables etc. > 11. Favour pedestrians, cyclists and electric bikes, segways, electric > wheelchairs etc in all city planning and movement infrastructure > > Globally these measures would generate at least a billion of jobs, reduce > deaths from pollution, and reduce health costs of cancers, heart disease, > obesity and air pollution, and reduce concentrations of wealth by putting > capacity to generate power, grow food and move around back in the hands of > householders and local communities. None of them require large scale > totalitarian and public debt-based technologies of the kind represented by > CDR. > > We need moral alternatives to the present madness. We need to argue for > them in every possible forum and embrace them ourselves. Arming the future > against the sun is a counsel of despair. > > Regards > > Michael > > Professor of Ethics > University of Edinburgh > > > On 17 Apr 2016, at 17:10, John Nissen <[email protected]> wrote: > > Dear Professor Mann, > > Most of us would like to keep global warming below 1.5C this century. But > we are way off course. > > Nobody likes to admit in public that we are already in dangerous > territory. But we are! > > The rate of global warming (near-surface temperature rise) could now > exceed 0.2 C per decade; CO2 is above 400 ppm (an excess of 120 ppm above > pre-industrial 280 ppm) of which most will remain this century due to CO2's > long lifetime in the atmosphere; and we have already had over 1 C > anthropogenic global warming (AGW). This means that, even with the most > drastic cut in CO2 emissions, we cannot avoid an extremely dangerous 3C > this century without aggressive CO2 removal (CDR). Indeed, if we want to > keep AGW below 1.5 C this century and halt ocean acidification, then we > need to get global warming rate down below 0.05 C per decade, i.e. less > than a quarter the current rate. > > Thus climate forcing has to be reduced by 75% within a decade or two, to > have a chance to keep below 1.5 C this century. > > Thus we have to reduce the CO2 level to around 210 ppm (30 ppm above > pre-industrial 280 ppm), and reduce methane from 1.8 ppm to around 1.0 ppm > in order to reduce their combined forcing by 75%. This assumes we maintain > aerosol cooling, especially the SO2 cooling from coal-fired power stations. > > > This is exacerbated by climate forcing from the Arctic, at around 0.5 W/m2 > and rising exponentially as albedo loss accelerates. > > Therefore, in addition to urgent CO2 emissions reduction, we need (i) > aggressive CDR so that CO2 is soon being removed from the atmosphere faster > than than it is being emitted, (ii) suppression of methane emissions, > especially fugitive methane (iii) rapid cooling of the Arctic to restore > albedo, and (iv) maintenance of SO2 aerosol cooling, if global warming is > to be kept below 1.5 C this century. > > Do you agree or can you suggest an alternative course of action to avert > extreme danger? > > Kind regards, > > John Nissen > Chair, Arctic Methane Emergency Group (AMEG) > > > On Sun, Apr 17, 2016 at 3:22 AM, Greg Rau <[email protected]> wrote: > >> >> >> http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/apr/15/march-temperature-smashes-100-year-global-record >> >> "The UK Met Office expects 2016 to set a new record >> <http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/17/2016-set-to-be-hottest-year-on-record-globally>, >> >> meaning the global temperature record is set to have been broken for three >> years in a row. >> >> Prof Michael Mann, a climate scientist at Penn State University in the >> US, responded to the March data by saying: “Wow. I continue to be shocked >> by what we are seeing.” He said the world had now been hovering close to >> the threshold of “dangerous” warming for two months, something not seen >> before. >> >> “The [new data] is a reminder of how perilously close we now are to >> permanently crossing into dangerous territory,” Mann said. “It underscores >> the urgency of reducing global carbon emissions.” >> >> GR - and the need to seriously consider additional ways of managing CO2 >> and climate. >> >> -- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >> "geoengineering" group. >> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an >> email to [email protected]. >> To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >> Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering. >> For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. >> > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "geoengineering" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to [email protected]. > To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. > Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering. > For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. > >
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