I should perhaps clarify that I have thus far seen no viable CDR scenarios that depend on social/political/economic change alone in the absence of major technological shifts. Perhaps this book will be filled with new a compelling evidence to the contrary, but my current understanding is that no practicable amount of recycling and biking to work and conservation tillage and reforestation and BECCS and all the rest can get us anywhere near sequestering 800 GtC by 2050. And that 800 *billion* tons (!) is only what must come out of the air that we've already put in - it doesn't include the 300 GtG more we're slated to emit by then! There are pathways to CDR at the hundred-gigaton scale, but they are entirely dependent upon future technologies like machine-labor-driven DACCS and enhanced weathering. Again, I do very much hope I'm wrong, but the task ahead of us is absolutely staggering and the social/political/economic pathways that depend on local conservation practices (as this book seems to imply) are likely doomed to disappoint.
On Sat, Apr 15, 2017 at 9:39 PM, Jonathan Marshall < [email protected]> wrote: > I certainly agree that it sounds as if it is overly optimistic.... It > will be interesting to see whether it suggests any socio-political remedies > or whether it will be purely technological > > > > jon > > > ------------------------------ > *From:* [email protected] <[email protected]> on behalf of Adam Dorr < > [email protected]> > *Sent:* Sunday, 16 April 2017 1:53 PM > *To:* Jonathan Marshall > > *Cc:* Geoengineering > *Subject:* Re: [geo] Paul Hawken et al Weigh In > > Again, without salient details my fear is that this is the pop-science > version of clickbait. I'm surely do hope I'm wrong, but unless these are > fundamentally new CDR scenarios that have not yet been discussed anywhere > in the geoengineering literature, my confidence in the claim that we can > somehow "reverse the build-up of atmospheric carbon within thirty years" in > the absence of radical technological change will have to remain > discouragingly low. > > > On Sat, Apr 15, 2017 at 6:08 PM, Jonathan Marshall < > [email protected]> wrote: > >> I thought the website was reasonably clear as to what the book was about >> >> "*Drawdown* maps, measures, models, and describes the 100 most >> substantive solutions to global warming. For each solution, we describe its >> history, the carbon impact it provides, the relative cost and savings, the >> path to adoption, and how it works. The goal of the research that informs >> *Drawdown* is to determine if we can reverse the buildup of atmospheric >> carbon within thirty years. All solutions modeled are already in place, >> well understood, analyzed based on peer-reviewed science, and are expanding >> around the world." >> >> In other words they are asserting that viable solutions already exist - >> and perhaps that if you combine them you can get a successful programme >> >> whether we do have viable solutions, or they can achieve a description in >> a useful way, is another matter. >> >> jon >> >> >> ------------------------------ >> *From:* [email protected] <[email protected]> on behalf of Adam Dorr < >> [email protected]> >> *Sent:* Sunday, 16 April 2017 10:29 AM >> *To:* Greg Rau >> *Cc:* Geoengineering >> *Subject:* Re: [geo] Paul Hawken et al Weigh In >> >> After reading the blurb on the website, I'm still unclear what this book >> is about. It purports to be the "story" of how different stakeholders are >> ... responding to the threat of climate change. But what does that mean? >> There "is as yet no roadmap that goes beyond slowing or stopping emissions" >> ... OK, so is this the story of how these various stakeholders are >> capturing and sequestering carbon? >> >> I need a little bit more detail in order to take this seriously, because >> I have so far been woefully underwhelmed by various plans and proposals to >> address climate change that do not adequately account for (or even >> consider) technological advances on the decadal timescales in question. >> >> >> >> On Sat, Apr 15, 2017 at 5:10 PM, Greg Rau <[email protected]> wrote: >> >>> http://www.drawdown.org/the-book >>> >>> "The subtitle of *Drawdown*—*The Most Comprehensive Plan Ever Proposed >>> to Reverse Global Warming*—may sound brash. We chose that description >>> because no detailed plan to reverse warming has been proposed. There have >>> been agreements and proposals on how to slow, cap, and arrest emissions, >>> and there are international commitments to prevent global temperature >>> increases from exceeding two degrees centigrade over pre-industrial levels. >>> One hundred and ninety-five nations have made extraordinary progress in >>> coming together to acknowledge that we have a momentous civilizational >>> crisis on our earthly doorstep and have created national plans of action. >>> The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has accomplished >>> the most significant scientific study in the history of humankind, and >>> continues to refine the science, expand the research, and extend our grasp >>> of one of the most complex systems imaginable—climate. However, there is as >>> yet no roadmap that goes beyond slowing or stopping emissions." >>> >>> “At a time when the Trump administration is working to dismantle much of >>> the nation’s efforts to minimize climate change, Paul Hawken’s new book >>> swoops onto the scene like a knight in shining armor…. The book’s release >>> couldn’t possibly come at a better time. Refreshingly absent of political >>> analysis, it’s grounded in scientific reality and will likely go a long way >>> toward inciting people to action.” >>> — The Portland Tribune >>> >>> -- >>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>> Groups "geoengineering" group. >>> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send >>> an email to [email protected]. >>> To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >>> Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering. >>> For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. >>> >> >> -- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >> "geoengineering" group. >> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an >> email to [email protected]. >> To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >> Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering. >> For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. >> >> ------------------------------ >> UTS CRICOS Provider Code: 00099F DISCLAIMER: This email message and any >> accompanying attachments may contain confidential information. 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