Poster's note: relevant, as a case exists to replace the 1/4 warming offset, currently obtained from aerosols, should the atmosphere get cleaned up.
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0552.1 Menu <https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0552.1#> Share <https://journals.ametsoc.org/action/clickThrough?id=1079&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.addthis.com%2Fbookmark.php%3Fv%3D250%26amp%3Busername%3Dxa-4c58776810b36f94&loc=%2Fapi%2Fhttps%2Flfm%2Fpub%2Farticle%2FidType%3Adoi%2Fid%3A10.1175%252FJCLI-D-17-0552.1%2Fformat%3Aabs%2FdeviceType%3Amobile%2FcheckAuth%3Apdf%2FecommInfo%3Atrue&pubId=40505496&placeholderId=1012&productId=1042> | <https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0552.1#> <https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0552.1#> <https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0552.1#> <https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0552.1#> Attribution of Arctic sea ice decline from 1953 to 2012 to influences from natural, greenhouse-gas and anthropogenic aerosol forcing B. L. Mueller* School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada. N. P. Gillett Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada. A. H. Monahan School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada. F. W. Zwiers Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada. **Corresponding author address*: B. L. Mueller, School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada. E-mail: [email protected] of Climate <https://journals.ametsoc.org/journal/clim>Vol. preprint: , Issue. 2018 <https://journals.ametsoc.org/toc/clim/preprint/2018>, : https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0552.1 Abstract The paper presents results from a climate change detection and attribution study on the decline of Arctic sea ice extent in September for the 1953 to 2012 period. For this period three independently-derived observational datasets and simulations from multiple climate models are available to attribute observed changes in the sea ice extent to known climate forcings. Here we direct our attention to the combined cooling effect from other anthropogenic forcing agents (mainly aerosols) that has potentially masked a fraction of greenhouse-gas induced Arctic sea ice decline. The presented detection and attribution framework consists of a regression model, namely, regularised optimal fingerprinting, where observations are regressed onto model simulated climate response patterns (i.e. fingerprints). We show that fingerprints from greenhouse-gas, natural and other anthropogenic forcings are detected in the three observed records of Arctic sea ice extent. Beyond that, our findings indicate that for the 1953 to 2012 period roughly 23% of the greenhouse-gas induced negative sea ice trend has been offset by a weak positive sea ice trend attributable to other anthropogenic forcing. We show that our detection and attribution results remain robust in the presence of emerging non-stationary internal climate variability acting upon sea ice using a perfect model experiment and data from two large ensembles of climate simulations -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
