Andrew and list:
Thanks for the lead.
Believing that arctic ice loss is our best global indicator of how fast
we are heading to ever more serious climate problems, I've tried to follow
Arctic melting for the last 10-12 years (I just learned that 2018 is lagging
other years overall, but is in first place for the central Arctic basin - the
most important). So, disappointed that this paper is behind a pay wall, I
found by Googling that the paper is probably the result of this 2016 Master's
thesis (his second Master's), downloadable at
https://dspace.library.uvic.ca/bitstream/handle/1828/7669/Mueller_Bennit_MSc_2016.pdf?sequence=1
<https://dspace.library.uvic.ca/bitstream/handle/1828/7669/Mueller_Bennit_MSc_2016.pdf?sequence=1>
Possibly more here than in the paper. I have only skimmed the thesis,
but believe Mr. Mueller has described a new useful methodology. He has pulled
a lot of new information out of some pretty sketchy actual data and huge
amounts of modeled data.
So, I hope that climate modelers will pay attention to this thesis as
a way to improve their models.
Ron
> On Aug 4, 2018, at 7:35 AM, Andrew Lockley <[email protected]> wrote:
>
> Poster's note: relevant, as a case exists to replace the 1/4 warming offset,
> currently obtained from aerosols, should the atmosphere get cleaned up.
>
> https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0552.1
> <https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0552.1>
>
> Menu <https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0552.1#>
>
> Share
> <https://journals.ametsoc.org/action/clickThrough?id=1079&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.addthis.com%2Fbookmark.php%3Fv%3D250%26amp%3Busername%3Dxa-4c58776810b36f94&loc=%2Fapi%2Fhttps%2Flfm%2Fpub%2Farticle%2FidType%3Adoi%2Fid%3A10.1175%252FJCLI-D-17-0552.1%2Fformat%3Aabs%2FdeviceType%3Amobile%2FcheckAuth%3Apdf%2FecommInfo%3Atrue&pubId=40505496&placeholderId=1012&productId=1042>|
> <https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0552.1#>
> <https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0552.1#>
> <https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0552.1#>
> <https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0552.1#>
> Attribution of Arctic sea ice decline from 1953 to 2012 to influences from
> natural, greenhouse-gas and anthropogenic aerosol forcing
>
> B. L. Mueller*
> School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, British
> Columbia, Canada.
>
> N. P. Gillett
> Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, University of Victoria,
> Victoria, British Columbia, Canada.
>
> A. H. Monahan
> School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, British
> Columbia, Canada.
>
> F. W. Zwiers
> Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria, British
> Columbia, Canada.
>
> *Corresponding author address: B. L. Mueller, School of Earth and Ocean
> Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada. E-mail:
> [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>
> Journal of Climate <https://journals.ametsoc.org/journal/clim>
> Vol. preprint: , Issue. 2018
> <https://journals.ametsoc.org/toc/clim/preprint/2018>, :
>
> https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0552.1
> <https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0552.1>
> Abstract
> The paper presents results from a climate change detection and attribution
> study on the decline of Arctic sea ice extent in September for the 1953 to
> 2012 period. For this period three independently-derived observational
> datasets and simulations from multiple climate models are available to
> attribute observed changes in the sea ice extent to known climate forcings.
> Here we direct our attention to the combined cooling effect from other
> anthropogenic forcing agents (mainly aerosols) that has potentially masked a
> fraction of greenhouse-gas induced Arctic sea ice decline. The presented
> detection and attribution framework consists of a regression model, namely,
> regularised optimal fingerprinting, where observations are regressed onto
> model simulated climate response patterns (i.e. fingerprints). We show that
> fingerprints from greenhouse-gas, natural and other anthropogenic forcings
> are detected in the three observed records of Arctic sea ice extent. Beyond
> that, our findings indicate that for the 1953 to 2012 period roughly 23% of
> the greenhouse-gas induced negative sea ice trend has been offset by a weak
> positive sea ice trend attributable to other anthropogenic forcing. We show
> that our detection and attribution results remain robust in the presence of
> emerging non-stationary internal climate variability acting upon sea ice
> using a perfect model experiment and data from two large ensembles of climate
> simulations
>
>
> --
> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups
> "geoengineering" group.
> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an
> email to [email protected]
> <mailto:[email protected]>.
> To post to this group, send email to [email protected]
> <mailto:[email protected]>.
> Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering
> <https://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering>.
> For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout
> <https://groups.google.com/d/optout>.
--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups
"geoengineering" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email
to [email protected].
To post to this group, send email to [email protected].
Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering.
For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
