Dear Ron,
Don't take this personally, but your email was a tipping point for me,
and I have to respond. Why are there so many complaints about
"paywalls?" Who do you expect to pay for the publication of scientific
papers? The American Meteorological Society, American Geophysical
Union, and American Association for the Advancement of Science are
non-profits. Part of the cost of publication is paid by authors, and
reviewers and most editors work for free. If you want them to give you
the papers for free, the authors will have to pay even more. If you
want the papers, join the AMS, AGU, and AAAS, and support our science.
Pay for subscriptions to the journals. I have been a member of all
three for my entire career.
Alan
Alan Robock, Distinguished Professor
Editor, Reviews of Geophysics
Department of Environmental Sciences Phone: +1-848-932-5751
Rutgers University E-mail: rob...@envsci.rutgers.edu
14 College Farm Road http://people.envsci.rutgers.edu/robock
New Brunswick, NJ 08901-8551 USA
☮ http://twitter.com/AlanRobock 2017 Nobel Peace Prize to ICAN!
Watch my 18 min TEDx talk at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qsrEk1oZ-54
On 8/4/2018 1:24 PM, Ronal W. Larson wrote:
Andrew and list:
Thanks for the lead.
Believing that arctic ice loss is our best global indicator of how
fast we are heading to ever more serious climate problems, I've tried
to follow Arctic melting for the last 10-12 years (I just learned that
2018 is lagging other years overall, but is in first place for the
central Arctic basin - the most important). So, disappointed that
this paper is behind a pay wall, I found by Googling that the paper is
probably the result of this 2016 Master's thesis (his second
Master's), downloadable at
https://dspace.library.uvic.ca/bitstream/handle/1828/7669/Mueller_Bennit_MSc_2016.pdf?sequence=1
Possibly more here than in the paper. I have only skimmed the thesis,
but believe Mr. Mueller has described a new useful methodology. He
has pulled a lot of new information out of some pretty sketchy actual
data and huge amounts of modeled data.
So, I hope that climate modelers will pay attention to this thesis as
a way to improve their models.
Ron
On Aug 4, 2018, at 7:35 AM, Andrew Lockley <andrew.lock...@gmail.com
<mailto:andrew.lock...@gmail.com>> wrote:
Poster's note: relevant, as a case exists to replace the 1/4 warming
offset, currently obtained from aerosols, should the atmosphere get
cleaned up.
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0552.1
Menu <https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0552.1#>
Share
<https://journals.ametsoc.org/action/clickThrough?id=1079&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.addthis.com%2Fbookmark.php%3Fv%3D250%26amp%3Busername%3Dxa-4c58776810b36f94&loc=%2Fapi%2Fhttps%2Flfm%2Fpub%2Farticle%2FidType%3Adoi%2Fid%3A10.1175%252FJCLI-D-17-0552.1%2Fformat%3Aabs%2FdeviceType%3Amobile%2FcheckAuth%3Apdf%2FecommInfo%3Atrue&pubId=40505496&placeholderId=1012&productId=1042>|<https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0552.1#><https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0552.1#><https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0552.1#><https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0552.1#>
Attribution of Arctic sea ice decline from 1953 to 2012 to
influences from natural, greenhouse-gas and anthropogenic aerosol
forcing
B. L. Mueller^*
School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria,
Victoria, British Columbia, Canada.
N. P. Gillett
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, University of
Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada.
A. H. Monahan
School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria,
Victoria, British Columbia, Canada.
F. W. Zwiers
Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria,
Victoria, British Columbia, Canada.
*/Corresponding author address/: B. L. Mueller, School of Earth and
Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia,
Canada. E-mail: benn...@uvic.ca <mailto:benn...@uvic.ca>
Journal of Climate <https://journals.ametsoc.org/journal/clim>
Vol. preprint: , Issue. 2018
<https://journals.ametsoc.org/toc/clim/preprint/2018>, :
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0552.1
Abstract
The paper presents results from a climate change detection and
attribution study on the decline of Arctic sea ice extent in
September for the 1953 to 2012 period. For this period three
independently-derived observational datasets and simulations from
multiple climate models are available to attribute observed changes
in the sea ice extent to known climate forcings. Here we direct our
attention to the combined cooling effect from other anthropogenic
forcing agents (mainly aerosols) that has potentially masked a
fraction of greenhouse-gas induced Arctic sea ice decline. The
presented detection and attribution framework consists of a
regression model, namely, regularised optimal fingerprinting, where
observations are regressed onto model simulated climate response
patterns (i.e. fingerprints). We show that fingerprints from
greenhouse-gas, natural and other anthropogenic forcings are detected
in the three observed records of Arctic sea ice extent. Beyond that,
our findings indicate that for the 1953 to 2012 period roughly 23% of
the greenhouse-gas induced negative sea ice trend has been offset by
a weak positive sea ice trend attributable to other anthropogenic
forcing. We show that our detection and attribution results remain
robust in the presence of emerging non-stationary internal climate
variability acting upon sea ice using a perfect model experiment and
data from two large ensembles of climate simulations
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