Poster's note: can't read full paper but I'm interested to see how much adaptation it assumed
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0417-3 [image: Nature] <https://www.nature.com/nature> <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0417-3#search-menu> <https://idp.nature.com/authorize/natureuser?client_id=grover&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nature.com%2Farticles%2Fs41586-018-0417-3> Letter | Published: 08 August 2018 <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0417-3#article-info> Estimating global agricultural effects of geoengineering using volcanic eruptions - Jonathan Proctor <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0417-3#auth-1>, - Solomon Hsiang <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0417-3#auth-2>, - […] - Wolfram Schlenker <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0417-3#auth-5> *Nature* (2018) | Download Citation <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0417-3.ris> Abstract Solar radiation management is increasingly considered to be an option for managing global temperatures1 <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0417-3#ref-CR1>,2 <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0417-3#ref-CR2>, yet the economic effects of ameliorating climatic changes by scattering sunlight back to space remain largely unknown3 <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0417-3#ref-CR3>. Although solar radiation management may increase crop yields by reducing heat stress4 <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0417-3#ref-CR4>, the effects of concomitant changes in available sunlight have never been empirically estimated. Here we use the volcanic eruptions that inspired modern solar radiation management proposals as natural experiments to provide the first estimates, to our knowledge, of how the stratospheric sulfate aerosols created by the eruptions of El Chichón and Mount Pinatubo altered the quantity and quality of global sunlight, and how these changes in sunlight affected global crop yields. We find that the sunlight-mediated effect of stratospheric sulfate aerosols on yields is negative for both C4 (maize) and C3 (soy, rice and wheat) crops. Applying our yield model to a solar radiation management scenario based on stratospheric sulfate aerosols, we find that projected mid-twenty-first century damages due to scattering sunlight caused by solar radiation management are roughly equal in magnitude to benefits from cooling. This suggests that solar radiation management—if deployed using stratospheric sulfate aerosols similar to those emitted by the volcanic eruptions it seeks to mimic—would, on net, attenuate little of the global agricultural damage from climate change. Our approach could be extended to study the effects of solar radiation management on other global systems, such as human health or ecosystem function. Access options -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
