Further
discussion:https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2018/08/08/this-climate-change-hack-would-reflect-more-sunlight-not-such-a-bright-idea-study-says/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.ca7f63bc40ba
From: Andrew Lockley <[email protected]>
To: geoengineering <[email protected]>
Sent: Thursday, August 9, 2018 12:44 AM
Subject: [geo] Estimating global agricultural effects of geoengineering using
volcanic eruptions
Poster's note: can't read full paper but I'm interested to see how much
adaptation it assumed
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0417-3
Letter | Published: 08 August 2018
Estimating global agricultural effects of geoengineering using volcanic
eruptions
- Jonathan Proctor,
- Solomon Hsiang,
- […]
- Wolfram Schlenker
Nature (2018) | Download Citation
Abstract
Solar radiation management is increasingly considered to be an option for
managing global temperatures1,2, yet the economic effects of ameliorating
climatic changes by scattering sunlight back to space remain largely unknown3.
Although solar radiation management may increase crop yields by reducing heat
stress4, the effects of concomitant changes in available sunlight have never
been empirically estimated. Here we use the volcanic eruptions that inspired
modern solar radiation management proposals as natural experiments to provide
the first estimates, to our knowledge, of how the stratospheric sulfate
aerosols created by the eruptions of El Chichón and Mount Pinatubo altered the
quantity and quality of global sunlight, and how these changes in sunlight
affected global crop yields. We find that the sunlight-mediated effect of
stratospheric sulfate aerosols on yields is negative for both C4 (maize) and C3
(soy, rice and wheat) crops. Applying our yield model to a solar radiation
management scenario based on stratospheric sulfate aerosols, we find that
projected mid-twenty-first century damages due to scattering sunlight caused by
solar radiation management are roughly equal in magnitude to benefits from
cooling. This suggests that solar radiation management—if deployed using
stratospheric sulfate aerosols similar to those emitted by the volcanic
eruptions it seeks to mimic—would, on net, attenuate little of the global
agricultural damage from climate change. Our approach could be extended to
study the effects of solar radiation management on other global systems, such
as human health or ecosystem function.
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