And to add to Anthony, - Data is too limited to do what they want (really only one major volcanic eruption, which is confounded by an El Nino, which they try to subtract off of the signal by assuming that every El Nino has an identical effect)
- The solar dimming and many precipitation changes from an eruption are fast, but the temperature effect is not, so a sustained aerosol layer will have different effects I and many other people told the authors about these challenges before they even wrote the paper, and suggested that they be more cautious in their description. Reading the paper won’t help, because they don’t really tell the reader all of the problems with the approach; the problems aren’t in the methodology per se, they are in the interpretation of the results. doug From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Andrew Lockley Sent: Thursday, August 09, 2018 5:44 PM To: RAU greg <[email protected]> Cc: geoengineering <[email protected]> Subject: Re: [geo] Estimating global agricultural effects of geoengineering using volcanic eruptions Really good critique of this paper from Ant Jones on this thread https://twitter.com/antcjones/status/1027474182681108480?s=19 There's a series of various, severe shortcomings (adaptation deficit, no CO2 fertilisation, no hydro cycle transients, etc.). Pretty surprising to hear this level of criticism on a regular paper, let alone in Nature. Media coverage was an absolute car crash - with UK left wing newspapers Independent and Guardian giving coverage that was pretty much the opposite of the paper's (disputed) findings (no net effect became negative effect). This very much backs up my arguments on pay walls - even I've not seen the full paper. The public has little hope of getting to the truth on this. Andrew Lockley On Thu, 9 Aug 2018, 17:15 Greg Rau, <[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>> wrote: Further discussion: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2018/08/08/this-climate-change-hack-would-reflect-more-sunlight-not-such-a-bright-idea-study-says/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.ca7f63bc40ba ________________________________ From: Andrew Lockley <[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>> To: geoengineering <[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>> Sent: Thursday, August 9, 2018 12:44 AM Subject: [geo] Estimating global agricultural effects of geoengineering using volcanic eruptions Poster's note: can't read full paper but I'm interested to see how much adaptation it assumed https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0417-3 [Nature]<https://www.nature.com/nature> Letter | Published: 08 August 2018<https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0417-3#article-info> Estimating global agricultural effects of geoengineering using volcanic eruptions · Jonathan Proctor<https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0417-3#auth-1>, · Solomon Hsiang<https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0417-3#auth-2>, · […] · Wolfram Schlenker<https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0417-3#auth-5> Nature (2018) | Download Citation<https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0417-3.ris> Abstract Solar radiation management is increasingly considered to be an option for managing global temperatures1<https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0417-3#ref-CR1>,2<https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0417-3#ref-CR2>, yet the economic effects of ameliorating climatic changes by scattering sunlight back to space remain largely unknown3<https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0417-3#ref-CR3>. Although solar radiation management may increase crop yields by reducing heat stress4<https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0417-3#ref-CR4>, the effects of concomitant changes in available sunlight have never been empirically estimated. Here we use the volcanic eruptions that inspired modern solar radiation management proposals as natural experiments to provide the first estimates, to our knowledge, of how the stratospheric sulfate aerosols created by the eruptions of El Chichón and Mount Pinatubo altered the quantity and quality of global sunlight, and how these changes in sunlight affected global crop yields. We find that the sunlight-mediated effect of stratospheric sulfate aerosols on yields is negative for both C4 (maize) and C3 (soy, rice and wheat) crops. Applying our yield model to a solar radiation management scenario based on stratospheric sulfate aerosols, we find that projected mid-twenty-first century damages due to scattering sunlight caused by solar radiation management are roughly equal in magnitude to benefits from cooling. This suggests that solar radiation management—if deployed using stratospheric sulfate aerosols similar to those emitted by the volcanic eruptions it seeks to mimic—would, on net, attenuate little of the global agricultural damage from climate change. Our approach could be extended to study the effects of solar radiation management on other global systems, such as human health or ecosystem function. Access options -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>. 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