List, To correct my earlier post on this matter.
At the recent GRC I met with Susanne Baur of CERFACS (bcc) who is researching this. After seeing her work I realised I had completely messed up my workings. The diffuse vs direct radiation term in the PV capacity calculation is swamped by changes to module temperature (colder = better) and cloud fraction (cloudy = worse). A sobering lesson in taking beer mat calculations seriously without proper models. Also, a reminder to check my workings with grad students with actual subject matter expertise before rushing out results that later turn out to be wrong! I'm on the science naughty step for a week now. Andrew On Sun, 12 Dec 2021, 22:18 Andrew Lockley, <[email protected]> wrote: > Just a quick envelope calculation on possible costs to energy > infrastructure from SRM. I don't recall seeing anything like this > published. Please attack. > > Total world energy consumption is a bit under 20TW and growing fast. > https://www.theworldcounts.com/stories/current_world_energy_consumption > > We can crudely assume approximately that amount will come from solar, mid > century - due to expected energy consumption growth and other technology > providing the balance (wind, nuclear, etc). > > Let's assume that SRM makes solar PV about 1pc less efficient. That's > 200GW lost to SRM. > > Mid point solar PV LCOE is about $35/MWh at the moment. We can assume that > might fall to around $2-20, although that's a broad range. > > Even at the bottom of this range, the cost to replace the "lost" energy is > therefore $400,000/hr. Per annum that's roughly $4bn - and could easily be > $40bn that, if solar costs don't fall precipitously. > > Even at the low end, that's approx the cost of an SRM program. > > My thinking is that this might be a tipping point that makes other forms > of SRM preferable - eg MCB or polar SAI. > > Comments welcome > > Andrew > > > > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/CAJ3C-06G9252t%3DA%2B2j%2B2DethL%3DhqRXCzX8Xaa1wzT9LhvF7mQA%40mail.gmail.com.
