And why not just do this in the US? That's where you're based, correct? On Fri, Dec 30, 2022 at 11:21 AM Joshua Horton <[email protected]> wrote:
> Setting aside whether answers like "don't know, several grams" are > sufficient in this context, I don't recall seeing anything about safety > protocols, consultations, or permits. Did you talk to Mexican authorities > before doing this? > > Josh > > On Fri, Dec 30, 2022 at 10:39 AM Luke Iseman <[email protected]> wrote: > >> Josh, >> >> I believe I've addressed all of these I can. You'll get a lot more detail >> when I fly telemetry, particularly if I can recover the balloons after the >> flight. To recap: >> locations: Baja California >> flight descriptions: the balloons were intentionally underinflated and >> went up. guesstimate 25-30km burst altitude. as i have made clear, i cannot >> confirm with 100% certainty that they reached the stratosphere. >> release altitudes and amounts: don't know, several grams >> safety protocols, consultations, permits, funding, etc.? nothing to add >> here that hasn't been covered. >> >> These were self-funded, initial flights. They were meant to demonstrate >> (mainly to me) that I could launch balloons containing some small amount of >> sulfur dioxide. >> >> -------------------- >> Luke Iseman >> make sunsets <https://makesunsets.com/> : global cooling >> >> >> On Fri, Dec 30, 2022 at 8:03 AM Josh Horton <[email protected]> >> wrote: >> >>> I want to repeat a set of questions I publicly posed to Luke on December >>> 9, few if any of which have been fully answered (despite the statement >>> "Happy to answer any questions"). >>> >>> Hi Luke, >>> >>> Can you provide more information about your launches--locations, flight >>> descriptions, release altitudes and amounts, safety protocols, >>> consultations, permits, funding, etc.? >>> >>> Josh Horton >>> >>> On Thursday, December 29, 2022 at 8:07:48 PM UTC-5 Russell Seitz wrote: >>> >>>> Luke, Make Sunsets has tweeted invoking "trade secrets ' in denying >>>> simple requests to quantify how much helium is needed per >>>> " cooling credit". >>>> This lack of transparency cannot stop anyone , policy analysts included >>>> from running the numbers . >>>> >>>> Dimensional analysis based on handbook and commercially disclosed >>>> values of the physical constants of air, helium and SO2 indicates that you >>>> can at best hope to lift 1.01 Kg per STP cubic meter of 97% pure balloon >>>> grade He. >>>> >>>> Since SO2 vapor's molecular weight makes it over twice as dense as air >>>> ( ~64/29), even if if the dead weigh of the balloon and its telemetry >>>> are completely disregarded it will still take a tonne or more of helium >>>> to loft a tonne of aerosol feedstock to stratospheric elevation. >>>> >>>> As you must be aware, the short supply of helium ( the US strategic >>>> reserve acquired after WWII was largely sold off by 2021) has already >>>> quadrupled its cost., and at present , annual global production is >>>> below100,000 tonnes and recoverable reserves stand at around 30 million >>>> tonnes globally. >>>> >>>> Using NOAA's numbers: >>>> >>>> https://research.noaa.gov/article/ArtMID/587/ArticleID/2756/Simulated-geoengineering-evaluation-cooler-planet-but-with-side-effects >>>> it is clear that your scheme would require lofting of a megatonne or >>>> more of SO2 a year per degree K of cooling: which is not only an order of >>>> magnitude more that present production can bear, but enough to completely >>>> deplete known reserves and resources by 2050. >>>> >>>> Finally, US helium is almost exclusively a byproduct of natural gas >>>> production , and so entails substantial release of methane and other >>>> hydrocarbons that are greenhouse gases more powerful than CO2 >>>> >>>> On Wednesday, December 28, 2022 at 6:09:51 PM UTC-5 >>>> [email protected] wrote: >>>> >>>>> Thanks Andrew, Olivier, Bala, and everyone else for diving in with >>>>> critiques here. I'm a cofounder of Make Sunsets and want to clarify a few >>>>> things: >>>>> >>>>> *Honesty: * >>>>> We have no desire to mislead anyone. If we make a mistake (which we >>>>> will), we'll correct it. >>>>> *Radiative Forcing:* >>>>> I didn't make this "gram offsets a ton" number up. It comes from David >>>>> Keith's research: >>>>> "a gram of aerosol in the stratosphere, delivered perhaps by >>>>> high-flying jets, could offset the warming effect of a ton of carbon >>>>> dioxide, a factor of 1 million to 1." >>>>> <https://keith.seas.harvard.edu/news/whats-right-temperature-earth> >>>>> and, again: "Geoengineering’s leverage is very high—one gram of >>>>> particles in the stratosphere prevents the warming caused by a ton of >>>>> carbon dioxide." >>>>> <https://longnow.org/seminars/02015/feb/17/patient-geoengineering/> >>>>> By stating "offsetting the warming effect of 1 ton of carbon for 1 >>>>> year," I was trying to be more conservative than Professor Keith. I am >>>>> correcting "carbon" to read "carbon dioxide" on the cooling credit >>>>> description right now, and I'm adding a paragraph at the start of the post >>>>> stating that estimates vary, but a leading researcher cites a gram >>>>> offsetting a ton. >>>>> For the several hundred dollars of cooling credits we've already sold, >>>>> I'll be providing evidence to each purchaser that I've delivered at least >>>>> 2 >>>>> grams per cooling credit. >>>>> Olivier, or anyone else: I'd be happy to post something by you to our >>>>> blog explaining what you estimate the radiative forcing of 1g so2 released >>>>> at 20km altitude from in or near the tropics will be and why. I will >>>>> include language of your choosing explaining that you in no way endorse >>>>> what we are doing. >>>>> I very much hope to get suggestions from this community on >>>>> instrumentation we should fly to improve the state of the science here. >>>>> Again, I'm happy to do this with disclaimers about how researchers we fly >>>>> things for are not endorsing our efforts. Or even without revealing who >>>>> the >>>>> researchers are: we'll fly test instruments and provide data, no questions >>>>> asked:) >>>>> *Telemetry: * >>>>> My first 2 flights had no telemetry: in April, this was still in >>>>> self-funded science project territory. After burning some sulfur and >>>>> capturing the resultant gas, I placed this in a balloon. I then added >>>>> helium, underinflating the balloon substantially, and let it go. There is >>>>> technically a slim possibility that neither of these balloons reached the >>>>> stratosphere, as I acknowledged to the Technology Review reporter. I will >>>>> add Spot trackers to my next flights. These cut out at 18km, so I'l be >>>>> able >>>>> to confirm that I achieve at least this altitude. If (and this is a big >>>>> if) >>>>> I'm able to recover the balloons, I'll have a lot more data from the >>>>> flight >>>>> computer >>>>> <https://www.highaltitudescience.com/collections/electronics/products/eagle-flight-computer>. >>>>> I will eventually switch to Swarms >>>>> <https://www.sparkfun.com/products/19236?utm_campaign=May%206%2C%202022&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=212205037&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9EyQOQ6C-9XuSOHa7CggOC8Pf2tEow_Fppo5pXgTHO8-7gV-aHrrYpnPcliws6Ju8j2PBAX3Tkog0oVpwk8XqWX2xo0w&utm_content=212206499&utm_source=hs_email>, >>>>> which should let me transmit more data regardless of balloon recovery. >>>>> *Pricing: * >>>>> Bala, you're totally right that this should be priced much lower. >>>>> We're trying to make enough with our early flights to stay in business >>>>> until we get meaningful traction with customers, and we plan to eventually >>>>> drop prices to $1 per ton or less. >>>>> *Reuse: * >>>>> We are not yet reusing balloons, and Andrew is correct that latex UV >>>>> degradation will limit our ability to do so with weather balloons. Given >>>>> that balloon cost is our main expense per gram, even a few uses per >>>>> balloon >>>>> will dramatically improve the economics here. >>>>> >>>>> I expect to disagree with some of you, but I hope we can do so >>>>> politely and assuming good intentions. >>>>> >>>> -- >>> You received this message because you are subscribed to a topic in the >>> Google Groups "geoengineering" group. >>> To unsubscribe from this topic, visit >>> https://groups.google.com/d/topic/geoengineering/l5fmgzA34HY/unsubscribe >>> . >>> To unsubscribe from this group and all its topics, send an email to >>> [email protected]. >>> To view this discussion on the web visit >>> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/e5064fb5-6850-4960-a425-e1854ddee44en%40googlegroups.com >>> <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/e5064fb5-6850-4960-a425-e1854ddee44en%40googlegroups.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer> >>> . >>> >> -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. 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