https://essopenarchive.org/doi/full/10.22541/essoar.173884462.21136288/v1

*Authors*
Anni Määttänen,François Ravetta,Thibaut Lurton,Olivier Boucher

*Cite as*: Anni Määttänen, François Ravetta, Thibaut Lurton, et al.
Idealized modeling of stratospheric aerosol injection deployment scenarios
with two uncooperative actors. ESS Open Archive . February 06, 2025.
DOI: 10.22541/essoar.173884462.21136288/v1

*06 February 2025*

*Abstract*
We have coupled multiple Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) controllers
to a simple climate model to investigate solar radiation management
scenarios using stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI). The climate model
describes the evolution of hemispheric temperatures and an Indian monsoon
index in response to annual SAI at a range of locations. The stratospheric
aerosol optical depth evolution after sulfur injections and the monsoon
response are parameterized based on simulations with a global climate
model. The controller models the behavior of an actor that deploys SAI to
reach a certain climatic goal, such as an average temperature or a monsoon
precipitation target. We have implemented different deployment scenarios
with two actors. Continuous deployment by two actors that do not cooperate
sometimes leads to the actors not fully reaching their targets. An
experiment where one of the actors stops for a while and then resumes SAI
leads to a free-riding situation with one actor doing most of the work.
Intermittent SAI experiments, where actors halt deployment for a period due
to perceived failure or decision-makers changing their minds, bring about
oscillations of hemispheric and global mean temperatures, and the targets
are missed. These results emphasize the need for global SRM governance.
More complex experiments, including multi-target controllers and coalitions
of actors, will be possible with a future version of the model.

*Source: ESS Open Archive*

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