----- Original Message -----
From: "James Annan" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> Alastair McDonald wrote:
>
>> Surely that is not true? A scenario is just a scenario, a line on a
>> graph
>> which shows the concentration of CO2 against future time. Whether
>> CO2 rises because the global economy is expanding or because the
>> permafrost is melting is irrelevant, if the shape of the subsequent graph
>> is
>> the same. If the level of CO2 falls, then whether it is caused by
>> measures brought in by governments to protect the environment, or
>> because the oil has run out, will make no difference to the climatic
>> consequences. We don't know which scenario is correct, but we
>> can say that if we continue with business as usual, as Hansen is pointing
>> out, then the consequences will be catastrophic.
>
> What is "business as usual"? There is no such thing as a policy vacuum.
> Given that there are already policies in place which explicitly target
> GHG emissions, we are already diverging from "business as usual" under
> the assumption that it is being used to mean "no policies to reduce GHG
> emissions". Moreover, there are large numbers of policies being drafted
> all the time which will have some conseqences for emissions even if that
> is not their primary target.
I was recently convinced in some blog debate that the phrase "business as
usual" is a very bad one, not only for what James brings up but because the
underlying assumptions about population growth and energy consumption are
actually a really far-fetched prediction.
It certainly only makes it more difficult to talk about the future not
having some pat idea about BAU, but, well, that's the reality, it is
difficult to talk about.
Coby
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