----- Original Message -----
From: "James Annan" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: <[email protected]>
Sent: Thursday, August 03, 2006 2:16 AM
Subject: [Global Change: 445] Re: Hansen: The Threat to the Planet
>
> Alastair McDonald wrote:
>
>> Surely that is not true? A scenario is just a scenario, a line on a
>> graph
>> which shows the concentration of CO2 against future time. Whether
>> CO2 rises because the global economy is expanding or because the
>> permafrost is melting is irrelevant, if the shape of the subsequent graph
>> is
>> the same. If the level of CO2 falls, then whether it is caused by
>> measures brought in by governments to protect the environment, or
>> because the oil has run out, will make no difference to the climatic
>> consequences. We don't know which scenario is correct, but we
>> can say that if we continue with business as usual, as Hansen is pointing
>> out, then the consequences will be catastrophic.
>
> What is "business as usual"?
It is not a matter of business as usual. It is a "business as usual"
scenario.
In other words, it is not a matter of business continuing on as it does
today.
It is a scenario where the "business" of carbon dioxide, methane, and ozone
trends continues to rise at the same rate as they are increasing at present.
(This means that dC/dt is constant, not that C the concentration of CO2 in
the atmosphere is constant. C continues to grow.)
And BUA means that the economy continues to grow. So long as George
W. Bush, the World Bank, and Tony Blair insist on a growth as the main goal
of global society, then we are locked into a BUA scenario.
As I see it, you are unwilling to accept that a catastrophe is possible.
Once
you do that, then you will see that a catastrophe is inevitable, unless
there is
a change of philosophy. The earth's resources are not infinite. Gold
mines get worked out and ghost towns are all that is left. The Grand Banks
have been fished out. Oklahoma was ploughed into a dust bowl. When the
crash comes it will be unexpected and sudden. And it is the complacency of
James Hansen that will have got us there, not the vision of Gore which not
only describes the danger but also brought us the internet.
Cheers, Alastair.
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