> Ernesto is now heading for Cuba and Florida, although if the track
> continues to drift eastwards it may miss Florida altogether and end up
> drenching Eli.
> http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/144732.shtml?5day
>
> OTOH it may pass over land such as Cuba and Florida and lose power,
> rather than gaining power from the warm water of the Gulf.
Ernesto has now passed over the east of Cuba, and if it follows
its projected track, the centre will pass over east Florida. It has
now been downgraded to a tropical storm is predicted to
intensify to a Hurricane just before making land fall in South
Carolina.
Judging by the way the projected track has been wrong, and the storm
has always been farther to the east than predicted, IMHO it seems
likely that the eye of the storm will miss Florida completely, and the
storm will intensify to a hurricane as it passes over the Gulf Stream. It
could then make landfall at New York but if it continues to move to
the east of its projected path at the same rate, then it is possible that
it will fade out harmlessly over the Atlantic.
The 10pm EDT chart will be out before this message appears.
Cheers, Alastair.
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