> Thanks for the updates. > > Kerry Emanuel has a nice page which shows various forcasts > http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/storm.html
Hi Eli, I didn't report last night because I thought that Ernesto was going to enter the Gulf but guessed that I would be proved wrong yet again :-( Ernesto seemed to cross Cuba near its eastern tip, then travel westward along the Cuban coast until it was just south of Florida.. Last night it had left the coast and I reckoned it would continue north westward into the Gulf. In fact it traveled north as predicted by NWS and is now headed up the middle of Florida. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/180733.shtml?5day?large There is a Local Statement for Miami here http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS82-KMFL.shtml The NWS are quite pleased because their predicted path of Ernesto has been stable for 3 days now. My error may have been to expect the predicted path to be stable too early in the storms life. It is now predicted to leave Florida, pass over the sea to South Carolina, and then travel north and rain over you :-) I have not paid much attention to Ioke since it seemed to be in the middle of the Pacific, with at most a few deserted islands for it to bother. Kerry's map this morning showed a few lines on a blank map. A couple of days ago there was a TV program on BBC about Japan, which explained that the Japanese characteristics were due to the dense population, for instance their extreme politeness. It said that the biggest natural disaster that could occur in the world would be a hurricane striking Tokyo. Kerry's map now shows the edge of Japan, and the lines leading towards it! Hopefully, if I predict that Tokyo will be hit by Ioke I will be proved wrong yet again :-) Cheers, Alastair. PS No doubt James Annan is saying amen to that! --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, moderated venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy dimensions of global environmental change. Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not gratuitously rude. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalchange -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
