"Eric Swanson" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote in message
news:<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>...
>
> Alastair McDonald wrote:
>
> > > There's also some evidence of increased inflow of water from the North
> > > Atlantic. The Atlantic water has intruded further into the Arctic
> > > Ocean than previously seen. Sorry, I don't have the reference handy.
> > > It's all just another nail in the coffin for those that keep saying
> > > that there's no global warming.
> >
> > You are correct again. The lack of growth of winter ice was mainly
> > confined to the eastern Arctic bordering the North Atlantic.
> > However, if an El Nino does inject warm Pacific into the Arctic,
> > then we could see a the ice being attacked on two fronts. This rather
> > Maslowski's conclusion "that the Arctic will soon be ice-free in
> > summertime."
> >
> > But more, the winter ice is not regrowing in the eastern Arctic, so
> > without a large summer multi-year ice pack, we may find that there
> > is no winter ice pack either!
>
> But the extent of sea-ice at the end of the winter freeze season is
> still going to be large, even if all the ice melts by the end of the
> summer melt period. If all the sea-ice melts, then by definition there
> won't be any multi-year ice left. Notice that Comiso's paper discusses
> the impacts of winds, which tend to move the sea-ice around to a
> considerable degree. The decline seen in the East Arctic Ocean may be
> a short term situation, with the winds pushing the ice toward another
> part of the Arctic. The important variable, to my mind, is the maximum
> extent for the entire Arctic.
>
> Your hypothesis that a complete melt at end of summer would then
> produce a complete melt for the entire year is seriously flawed, as the
> trends point to a considerable area of ice reforming every year. Also,
I don't know enough about it to make any kind of prediction, but I can
certainly think of a number of significant inhibitors to ice in the open sea
reforming after it has once melted completely:
- much greater turbulence of the water where an ice cover would
otherwise have calmed things
- no edge from which to grow
- greater response of any newly formed ice to wind causing this new
ice to melt again when pushed into warmer waters or air temperatures
- assuming flucuations in temperatures even as the fall/winter trend is
towards cold, a small, thin and new ice pack stands a much greater
chance of being melted back to square one than equivalent gains
attached to multi-year ice
That said, I would expect sea ice to grow from land. Surely it does this
now?
It is not clear to me how trends observed in the existing situation can be
much use in such a different one.
Coby
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