Coby Beck wrote:
> "Eric Swanson" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote in message
> news:<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>...
> > Your hypothesis that a complete melt at end of summer would then
> > produce a complete melt for the entire year is seriously flawed, as the
> > trends point to a considerable area of ice reforming every year. Also,
>
> I don't know enough about it to make any kind of prediction, but I can
> certainly think of a number of significant inhibitors to ice in the open sea
> reforming after it has once melted completely:
>
> - much greater turbulence of the water where an ice cover would
> otherwise have calmed things
> - no edge from which to grow
> - greater response of any newly formed ice to wind causing this new
> ice to melt again when pushed into warmer waters or air temperatures
> - assuming flucuations in temperatures even as the fall/winter trend is
> towards cold, a small, thin and new ice pack stands a much greater
> chance of being melted back to square one than equivalent gains
> attached to multi-year ice
>
> That said, I would expect sea ice to grow from land. Surely it does this
> now?
>
> It is not clear to me how trends observed in the existing situation can be
> much use in such a different one.
There's one big factor that you are missing here, I think. The North
Pole does not receive any sunlight for 6 months of the year, beginning
a few days from today. As a result, the atmosphere gets very cold,
much colder than necessary to freeze sea water. Yet, the sea-ice is
just now near the seasonal minimum extent. The minimum extent may not
occur until October in some years. Looking at RG's web site, notice
the large polynia just north of Alaska. That is a new feature,
according to Serreze. Also, there appears to be some ice drifting out
thru the Fram Strait at the north end of Greenland, although one can't
tell about flow by viewing the extent and concentration map.
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/seaice/Analyses.html#akmap
Take a look at the time-lapse animation too.
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