From: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> I also think that the IPCC considers the effect of climate change on
> emissions and economic growth small (of course my reading of the IPCC
> reports may be mistaken).
>
> They don't attach probabilities to their scenarios, they don't exclude
> the possibility of way out scenarios, but still, they argue their
> scenarios are a reasonable view of the future.
>
> The scenarios imply that high economic growth, if powered by coal, may
> mean 5C by 2100.
While true that the growth rate in coal consumption is the strongest driver,
the growth rate in per capita GDP is actually negatively related to
temperature change. Of scenarios A1, A2, A1T, B1, and B2, the scenarios
with the highest estimated temperature change have the lowest per capita GDP
growth rates.
Scenario A2 has estimated 4.8degC temp change by 2100 with gdp/pop growth of
3% per year between 1990 and 2060. Only two scenarios achieve stabilization
of atmospheric CO2 by 2100: B1 and A1T. Scenario B1 has estimated 2.5degC
temp increase with gdp/pop growth of 7% per year, and A1T has est. 3.3degC
temp increase with gdp/pop growth of 10% per year.
For these five scenarios, the correlation between coal growth rate and
gdp/pop growth rate is negative (-.87) , the correlation between rate of
coal increase and temperature increase is positive (+.79), and the
correlation between gdp/pop growth and temp increase is negative (-.40).
The scenarios imply that, if powered by coal, we'll be poorer and hotter
than if powered by nuclear.
-dl
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