Coby Beck wrote:
> <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote in message
> news:<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>...
> >
> > > For consequences like that, I'd hope a one in 10,000 chance would do it!
> >
> > I think meteorite strikes and what, or rather how little, we do about
>
> (btw, I think in this example, the odds are 1 in millions and we are taking
> actions.)
>
> > I think meteorite strikes and what, or rather how little, we do about
> > them is an indication that even for extinction we do take account of
> > probability.
>
> As we should, that's what I mean. But so far I have yet to see any
> discussion of what probablity of really catastrophic climate change it would
> take to justify some kind of tangible sacrifice. So far the discussions
> seem to encompass mostly arguments about whether or not it is worth "a
> single american job" and the underlying assumption that 100% certainty of
> anthropogenic causes is required before any change in policy is justified.
>
> I don't think I made my point clear, I hope that helps.
Curiously in an adjacent thread, comes the following argument:
1. The equilibrium sea level rise for 3 C is from 15 to 35 meters.
2. The question is how fast do we get there
3. We do not know ice dynamics under strong forcings
4. Todays models of ice dynamics are stretched even now in modeling
what is happening in the Greenland ice cap.
Scared now?
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