From: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>[dl]
>> Scenario A2 has estimated 4.8degC temp change by 2100 with gdp/pop growth
>> of
>> 3% per year between 1990 and 2060. Only two scenarios achieve
>> stabilization
>> of atmospheric CO2 by 2100: B1 and A1T. Scenario B1 has estimated
>> 2.5degC
>> temp increase with gdp/pop growth of 7% per year, and A1T has est.
>> 3.3degC
>> temp increase with gdp/pop growth of 10% per year.
>
> What is gdp/pop growth?
>
> It's not per capita GDP, because that most certainly does not double
> every 7 years in any of the scenarios (10% annual growth equals
> doubling every 7 years, equals factor 1000 over 70 years, or about
> factor 16,000 in 100 years)
Indeed you are correct. Taking somewhat greater care with the calculations,
scenario A2 assumes per capita gdp growth of 1.1% per year, B1 assumes 2.3%
per year, and A1T assumes 2.8% per year (fitting exponential growth curves
between 1990 and 2060).
Nevertheless, my conclusion remains the same: the correlation between per
capita gdp growth rate and temp increase is negative (-.36), the correlation
between the rate of increase in coal consumption and temp increase is
positive (+.42), and the correlation between coal growth and per capita gdp
growth is negative (-.96).
Hotter and poorer with coal.
-dl
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