> http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/
> points out that El Niño's are associated with fewer hurricanes in the
> Atlantic basin. I find this interesting as it indicates that while
> hurricanes overall might go up, they might actually decrease in the US.
That is what seems to be happening this year.
BTW, I have heard that in Australia they had already realised that an
El Nino was underway a few months ago. It seems that the US has only
wakened up to it in the last few weeks.
> The other thing I found interesting in this paper was a suggestion that
> El Nino conditions might become permanent.
But I am doubtful that you can have a permanent El Nino. It seems
to be caused by water which has built up in the warm pool, flowing
out over the Pacific. In other words it is one phase of a cycle. It
is not possible for it to be permanent, because you need the other
phase which builds the warm pool for an El Nino to happen. The
only possibility is that the wavelength of the cycle is reduced from 4
to 8 years down to one.
The other phase is not necessarily a La Nina. Possibly La
Nina is a third phase in the cycle. If you think of the Pacific climate
as a pendulum swinging irregularly, then when it swings well to
the right and you get an El Nino. When it swings far to the left
you get a La Nina, but normally it just swings gently.
Cheers, Alastair.
--~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups
Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, moderated
venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy dimensions of
global environmental change.
Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the
submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not
gratuitously rude.
To post to this group, send email to [email protected]
To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED]
For more options, visit this group at
http://groups.google.com/group/globalchange
-~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
